caa a22 4500 378886665 CHVBK 20180305123444.0 cr unu---uuuuu 161128e20041012xx s 000 0 eng 10.2202/1553-3832.1016 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)gruyter-10.2202/1553-3832.1016 Experimental Political Betting Markets and the 2004 Election [Elektronische Daten] [Justin Wolfers, Eric Zitzewitz] Betting on elections has been of interest to economists and political scientists for some time. We recently persuaded TradeSports to run experimental contingent betting markets, in which one bets on whether President Bush will be re-elected, conditional on other specified events occurring. Early results suggest that market participants strongly believe that Osama bin Laden’s capture would have a substantial effect on President Bush’s electoral fortunes, and interestingly that the chance of his capture peaks just before the election. More generally, these markets suggest that issues outside the campaign -– like the state of the economy, and progress on the war on terror -– are the key factors in the forthcoming election. ©2011 Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co. KG, Berlin/Boston Prediction Markets nationallicence Contingent Claims nationallicence Wolfers Justin Wharton. U.Penn aut Zitzewitz Eric Stanford GSB aut The Economists' Voice De Gruyter 1/2(2004-10-12) 1:2 2004 1 ev https://doi.org/10.2202/1553-3832.1016 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.2202/1553-3832.1016 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Wolfers Justin Wharton. U.Penn aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Zitzewitz Eric Stanford GSB aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- The Economists' Voice De Gruyter 1/2(2004-10-12) 1:2 2004 1 ev CC0 http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0 nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-gruyter