caa a22 4500 378907573 CHVBK 20180305123533.0 cr unu---uuuuu 161128e20040219xx s 000 0 eng 10.2202/1542-0485.1053 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)gruyter-10.2202/1542-0485.1053 Promotion Carryover as a Missing-Data Problem [Elektronische Daten] [Garth J. Holloway, Osman Aydogus] An important feature of agribusiness promotion programs is their lagged impact on consumption. Efficient investment in advertising requires reliable estimates of these lagged responses and it is desirable from both applied and theoretical standpoints to have a flexible method for estimating them. This note derives an alternative Bayesian methodology for estimating lagged responses when investments occur intermittently within a time series. The method exploits a latent-variable extension of the natural-conjugate, normal-linear model, Gibbs sampling and data augmentation. It is applied to a monthly time series on Turkish pasta consumption (1993:5-1998:3) and three, non-consecutive promotion campaigns (1996:3, 1997:3, 1997:10). The results suggest that responses were greatest to the second campaign, which allocated its entire budget to television media; that its impact peaked in the sixth month following expenditure; and that the rate of return (measured in metric tons additional consumption per thousand dollars expended) was around a factor of 20. ©2011 Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co. KG, Berlin/Boston Advertizing nationallicence Commodity Promotion nationallicence promotion carryover nationallicence missing data nationallicence data augmentation nationallicence Gibbs sampling nationallicence Holloway Garth J. University of Reading, United Kingdom aut Aydogus Osman Ege University, Turkey aut Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization De Gruyter 2/1(2004-02-19) 2:1 2004 2 jafio https://doi.org/10.2202/1542-0485.1053 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.2202/1542-0485.1053 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Holloway Garth J. University of Reading, United Kingdom aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Aydogus Osman Ege University, Turkey aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization De Gruyter 2/1(2004-02-19) 2:1 2004 2 jafio CC0 http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0 nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-gruyter