Prediction of Currency Crises: Case of Turkey
| LEADER | caa a22 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | 378911910 | ||
| 003 | CHVBK | ||
| 005 | 20180305123543.0 | ||
| 007 | cr unu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 161128e20040801xx s 000 0 eng | ||
| 024 | 7 | 0 | |a 10.2202/1475-3693.1022 |2 doi |
| 035 | |a (NATIONALLICENCE)gruyter-10.2202/1475-3693.1022 | ||
| 245 | 0 | 0 | |a Prediction of Currency Crises: Case of Turkey |h [Elektronische Daten] |c [Roberto S Mariano, Bulent N Gultekin, Suleyman Ozmucur, Tayyeb Shabbir, C. Emre Alper] |
| 520 | 3 | |a This paper explores the issue of constructing an economic predictive model of financial vulnerability through an alternative econometric methodology that addresses drawbacks in existing approaches. The methodology entails estimating a Markov regime switching model of exchange rate movements, with time-varying transition probabilities. Experiments with monthly and weekly models indicate that real exchange rate, foreign exchange reserves and domestic credit/deposit ratio are the most important determinants of financial vulnerability. These variables should be observed very closely by researchers and policy makers in order to determine if the country is heading for financially difficult times. | |
| 540 | |a ©2011 Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co. KG, Berlin/Boston | ||
| 690 | 7 | |a JEL Classification: C50 |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a F30 |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a O16 |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a O50 |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a Markov switching financial vulnerability |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a foreign exchange crises |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a banking crises |2 nationallicence | |
| 690 | 7 | |a Turkey |2 nationallicence | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Mariano |D Roberto S. |u School of Economics and Social Sciences, Singapore Management University and Department of Economics |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Gultekin |D Bulent N. |u Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Ozmucur |D Suleyman |u University of Pennsylvania |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Shabbir |D Tayyeb |u Univ of Pennsylvania |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Alper |D C. Emre |u Department of Economics, Bogazici University |4 aut | |
| 773 | 0 | |t Review of Middle East Economics and Finance |d De Gruyter |g 2/2(2004-08-01), 1-21 |q 2:2<1 |1 2004 |2 2 |o rmeef | |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://doi.org/10.2202/1475-3693.1022 |q text/html |z Onlinezugriff via DOI |
| 908 | |D 1 |a research article |2 jats | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 856 |E 40 |u https://doi.org/10.2202/1475-3693.1022 |q text/html |z Onlinezugriff via DOI | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Mariano |D Roberto S. |u School of Economics and Social Sciences, Singapore Management University and Department of Economics |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Gultekin |D Bulent N. |u Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Ozmucur |D Suleyman |u University of Pennsylvania |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Shabbir |D Tayyeb |u Univ of Pennsylvania |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 700 |E 1- |a Alper |D C. Emre |u Department of Economics, Bogazici University |4 aut | ||
| 950 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |P 773 |E 0- |t Review of Middle East Economics and Finance |d De Gruyter |g 2/2(2004-08-01), 1-21 |q 2:2<1 |1 2004 |2 2 |o rmeef | ||
| 900 | 7 | |b CC0 |u http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0 |2 nationallicence | |
| 898 | |a BK010053 |b XK010053 |c XK010000 | ||
| 949 | |B NATIONALLICENCE |F NATIONALLICENCE |b NL-gruyter | ||