caa a22 4500 378913719 CHVBK 20180305123548.0 cr unu---uuuuu 161128e20040401xx s 000 0 eng 10.1515/156939804323089307 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)gruyter-10.1515/156939804323089307 Modelling the climate system response to small external forcing [Elektronische Daten] [V. P. Dymnikov, N. A. Diansky, V. Ya. Galin, A. V. Glazunov, A. S. Gritsoun, V. N. Lykossov, E. M. Volodin] In this paper, we give some results of an investigation into the climate system sensitivity to small external forcings. We analyse the response to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide content in 18 climate models involved in the CMIP program. It is shown that of vital importance in the total response is its radiative component. Moreover, a significant contribution is made by a dynamical response whose main component is the Arctic Oscillation. We describe the method of calculating the operator of the dynamical response of climate models and the real climate system to these external forcings (the calculation of the first moment perturbation). It is shown that the approximate response operator allows one to reproduce both the value and the spatial structure of the linear part of the response of the atmospheric general circulation model with high accuracy. The external forcing optimally exciting the Arctic Oscillation is constructed by the observational data and the results of modelling. It is shown that the radiative response of climate models to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide content is mainly due to an amount of heat used for warming up the ocean and the extent to which the radiation balance of the Earth varies due to cloudiness change as the climate changes. In models predicting the large value of the global warming the short-wave radiation balance on the surface generally increases, whereas the small value of the global warming corresponds to the decrease of the short-wave radiation balance. We discuss the dependence of the value of the global warming, as the carbon dioxide content increases, on the geographical distribution of the incoming short-wave radiation as well as the correction of a heat flux when modelling the present-day climate. Using this dependence, we estimate the expected value of the global warming, as the carbon dioxide content increases, for the real climate system. Copyright 2004, Walter de Gruyter Dymnikov V. P. Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow GSP-1, 119991, Russia aut Diansky N. A. Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow GSP-1, 119991, Russia aut Galin V. Ya Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow GSP-1, 119991, Russia aut Glazunov A. V. Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow GSP-1, 119991, Russia aut Gritsoun A. S. Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow GSP-1, 119991, Russia aut Lykossov V. N. Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow GSP-1, 119991, Russia aut Volodin E. M. Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow GSP-1, 119991, Russia aut Russian Journal of Numerical Analysis and Mathematical Modelling Walter de Gruyter 19/2(2004-04-01), 131-161 0927-6467 19:2<131 2004 19 rnam https://doi.org/10.1515/156939804323089307 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1515/156939804323089307 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Dymnikov V. P. Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow GSP-1, 119991, Russia aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Diansky N. A. Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow GSP-1, 119991, Russia aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Galin V. Ya Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow GSP-1, 119991, Russia aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Glazunov A. V. Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow GSP-1, 119991, Russia aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Gritsoun A. S. Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow GSP-1, 119991, Russia aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Lykossov V. N. Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow GSP-1, 119991, Russia aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Volodin E. M. Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow GSP-1, 119991, Russia aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Russian Journal of Numerical Analysis and Mathematical Modelling Walter de Gruyter 19/2(2004-04-01), 131-161 0927-6467 19:2<131 2004 19 rnam CC0 http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0 nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-gruyter