caa a22 4500 378917315 CHVBK 20180305123556.0 cr unu---uuuuu 161128e20040901xx s 000 0 eng 10.1515/JPM.2004.137 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)gruyter-10.1515/JPM.2004.137 Evaluation of second trimester maternal serum screening for Down's Syndrome using the Spiegelhalter-Knill-Jones (S-KJ) approach [Elektronische Daten] [Hsiao-Lin Hwa, Ming-Fang Yen, Fon-Jou Hsieh, Tsang-Ming Ko, Tony Hsiu-Hsi Chen] Aims: Risk estimation for Down's syndrome in antenatal serum screening with maternal age and multiple serum biomarkers is usually complicated and computationally intensive. We have developed a simple scoring system using the Spiegelhalter-Knill-Jones approach, which was based on Bayesian theorem and the logistic regression model. Methods: A prospective data set with 3842 singleton pregnancies including 6 affected pregnancies served as "trained data”. Maternal age, maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein and human chorionic gonadotrophin levels of each pregnant woman were adopted as the predictors to establish the scoring model using the S-KJ approach. Model validation was undertaken using a receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve with another 3050 singleton pregnancies including 4 affected pregnancies ("validated data”). Results: For the trained data the sensitivity and specificity of the scoring system at cut-off value of 1:250 was 66.7% and 92.6%, respectively. For the validated data the sensitivity and specificity at the same cut-off point was 75% and 92.2%, respectively. The area under the ROC curve of the trained and validated data was 76.96% (95% CI: 51.80-100%), and 94.07% (95% CI: 84.47-100%), respectively. Conclusions: The S-KJ scoring system has been demonstrated to be a simple, and efficient method for the risk estimation of Down's syndrome. This system can be applied to other antenatal serum screening systems. © Walter de Gruyter Human reproduction, growth & development nationallicence Gynaecology & obstetrics nationallicence Paediatric medicine nationallicence Antenatal serum screening nationallicence Bayesian theorem nationallicence Down's syndrome nationallicence Logistic regression nationallicence Spiegelhalter-Knill-Jones (S-KJ) approach nationallicence Hwa Hsiao-Lin Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, National Taiwan, University Hospital and National Taiwan University College of Medicine, National Taiwan University, Taiwan aut Yen Ming-Fang Institute of Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taiwan aut Hsieh Fon-Jou Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, National Taiwan, University Hospital and National Taiwan University College of Medicine, National Taiwan University, Taiwan aut Ko Tsang-Ming Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, National Taiwan, University Hospital and National Taiwan University College of Medicine, National Taiwan University, Taiwan aut Chen Tony Hsiu-Hsi Institute of Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taiwan aut Journal of Perinatal Medicine Walter de Gruyter 32/5(2004-09-01), 407-412 0300-5577 32:5<407 2004 32 jpme https://doi.org/10.1515/JPM.2004.137 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1515/JPM.2004.137 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Hwa Hsiao-Lin Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, National Taiwan, University Hospital and National Taiwan University College of Medicine, National Taiwan University, Taiwan aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Yen Ming-Fang Institute of Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taiwan aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Hsieh Fon-Jou Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, National Taiwan, University Hospital and National Taiwan University College of Medicine, National Taiwan University, Taiwan aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Ko Tsang-Ming Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, National Taiwan, University Hospital and National Taiwan University College of Medicine, National Taiwan University, Taiwan aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Chen Tony Hsiu-Hsi Institute of Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taiwan aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Journal of Perinatal Medicine Walter de Gruyter 32/5(2004-09-01), 407-412 0300-5577 32:5<407 2004 32 jpme CC0 http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0 nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-gruyter