caa a22 4500 386339775 CHVBK 20180307111745.0 cr unu---uuuuu 161130e198912 xx s 000 0 eng 10.2307/1961660 doi S0003055400088067 pii (NATIONALLICENCE)cambridge-10.2307/1961660 Change and Stability in Superpower Rivalry [Elektronische Daten] We investigate the dynamics of superpower rivalry. Participants in policy debates within each state use information about expected future threats and economic costs to influence other policy actors, and this process of sophisticated reaction links the security policies of these two states into a single rivalry system. Analysis of vector autoregression models of U.S. and Soviet military expenditures and diplomatic hostility and U.S. gross national product supports the hypothesis that these policies approximate the behavior of unitary rational states capable of forming rational expectations of each other's future behavior. The dynamic response of this system to a wide range of exogenous shocks (or innovations) reveals the underlying stability of this rivalry system. The military expenditures of both states exhibit a cyclical response to innovations, with a shorter U.S. cycle. This lack of synchronization creates several problems for analysis and for policy change. Copyright © American Political Science Association 1989 McGinnis Michael D. Indiana University Williams John T. University of Illinois Chicago American Political Science Review Cambridge University Press 83/4(1989-12), 1101-1123 0003-0554 83:4<1101 1989 83 PSR https://doi.org/10.2307/1961660 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.2307/1961660 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- McGinnis Michael D. Indiana University NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Williams John T. University of Illinois Chicago NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- American Political Science Review Cambridge University Press 83/4(1989-12), 1101-1123 0003-0554 83:4<1101 1989 83 PSR CC0 http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0 nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-cambridge