caa a22 4500 388025301 CHVBK 20180307124936.0 cr unu---uuuuu 161130e199807 xx s 000 0 eng 10.1017/S0032247400025663 doi S0032247400025663 pii (NATIONALLICENCE)cambridge-10.1017/S0032247400025663 Jones C. Scott Center for Northern Studies, Wolcott, Vermont 05680, USA Predictive tourism models: are they suitable in the polar environment? [Elektronische Daten] [C. Scott Jones] Polar tourism is a quickly growing, little-studied industry. Understanding tourism's current effects and forecasting future ones is increasingly important. This paper investigates the applicability and usefulness of predictive tourism models for polar environments, by focusing upon Arctic Ship Tourism (AST). R.W. Butler's evolutionary tourism model is presented, with emphasis upon Stanley Plog's version. The strong fit of AST within the framework of these models is established, with emphasis on likely future developments. Usefulness of models in the polar context is limited by several factors, including their origins, their lack of a price/demand element, their deterministic cycle, and vagueness. Still, identifying likely future trends, such as growth levels, passenger characteristics, regulatory mechanisms, and environmental impacts, can result in practical advice for polar resource managers and tour operators. Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1998 Polar Record Cambridge University Press 34/190(1998-07), 197-202 0032-2474 34:190<197 1998 34 POL https://doi.org/10.1017/S0032247400025663 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1017/S0032247400025663 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 100 1- Jones C. Scott Center for Northern Studies, Wolcott, Vermont 05680, USA NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Polar Record Cambridge University Press 34/190(1998-07), 197-202 0032-2474 34:190<197 1998 34 POL CC0 http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0 nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-cambridge