caa a22 4500 388097213 CHVBK 20180307125307.0 cr unu---uuuuu 161130e199905 xx s 000 0 eng 10.1017/S0029665199000312 doi S0029665199000312 pii (NATIONALLICENCE)cambridge-10.1017/S0029665199000312 Alternative futures for world cereal and meat consumption [Elektronische Daten] Fundamental changes in the global structure of food demand will lead to an extra-ordinary increase in the importance of developing countries in global food markets. Economic growth in developing countries is changing consumption patterns, with slower growth (and in many countries actual declines) in per capita food consumption of grains and rapidly growing per capita and total meat consumption, combined with induced growth in cereal feed consumption. The present paper examines the hypothesis, suggested by some researchers, that high-meat diets in developed countries limit improvement in food security in developing countries. These analysts argue that reduced meat consumption in developed countries would release cereals from livestock feed to food for poorer populations, thus improving food security in developing countries. Using the International Food Policy Research Institute (Washington, DC, USA) global food projections model, the international model for policy analysis of agricultural com-modities and trade (see Rosegrant et al. 1995), we first analyse the implications for future global cereal and meat supply and demand resulting from changes in global income, population growth and other structural changes, then simulate alternative sce-narios to examine the effect of large reductions in meat consumption in developed coun-tries on food consumption and food security in developing countries. The paper shows that while the long-term prospects for food supply, demand and trade indicate a strength-ening of world cereal and livestock markets, the improvement in food security in the developing world will be slow, and changes in the dietary patterns in developed countries are not an effective route to improvement in food security in developing countries. Copyright © The Nutrition Society 1999 Meat consumption nationallicence Cereal consumption nationallicence Global food model nationallicence Dietary patterns nationallicence Rosegrant Mark W. International Food Policy Research Institute, 2033K Street NW, Washington, DC 20006, USA Leach Nancy International Food Policy Research Institute, 2033K Street NW, Washington, DC 20006, USA Gerpacio Roberta V. Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Davis, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616, USA Proceedings of the Nutrition Society Cambridge University Press 58/2(1999-05), 219-234 0029-6651 58:2<219 1999 58 PNS https://doi.org/10.1017/S0029665199000312 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 conference jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1017/S0029665199000312 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Rosegrant Mark W. International Food Policy Research Institute, 2033K Street NW, Washington, DC 20006, USA NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Leach Nancy International Food Policy Research Institute, 2033K Street NW, Washington, DC 20006, USA NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Gerpacio Roberta V. Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Davis, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616, USA NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Proceedings of the Nutrition Society Cambridge University Press 58/2(1999-05), 219-234 0029-6651 58:2<219 1999 58 PNS CC0 http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0 nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-cambridge