caa a22 4500 397517041 CHVBK 20180308164621.0 cr unu---uuuuu 161202e19951001xx s 000 0 eng 10.2307/1344591 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)oxford-10.2307/1344591 Exchange market mayhem: the antecedents and aftermath of speculative attacks [Elektronische Daten] [Barry Eichengreen, Andrew K. Rose, Charles Wyplosz] Exchange market mayhem The antecedents and aftermath of speculative attacks This paper evaluates the causes and consequences of episodes of turbulence in foreign exchange markets. Using data from 1959 through 1993 for twenty OECD countries, we consider the antecedents and aftermath of devaluations and revaluations, flotations, fixings and speculative attacks (which may not be successful). We find that realignments of fixed exchange rates are alike: devaluations are preceded by political instability, budget and current account deficits, and fast growth of money and prices. Revaluations are mirror images of devaluations. Speculative attacks resemble devaluations, but money growth and inflation are more endemic and there is no last-minute attempt to tighten monetary policy. In contrast, few consistent correlations link regime transitions like flotations or fixings to macroeconomic or political variables. Transitions between exchange rate regimes are largely idiosyncratic, and are neither consistently provoked ex ante by systematic imbalances, nor typically justified ex post by subsequent changes in policy. We conclude that there are no clear early warning signals of many speculative attacks, and no easy solutions for policy-makers. — Barry Eichengreen, Andrew K. Rose and Charles Wyplosz © CEPR, CES, MSH, 1995 Original Articles nationallicence Eichengreen Barry University of California, Berkeley; Haas School of Business; and INSEAD aut Rose Andrew K. University of California, Berkeley; Haas School of Business; and INSEAD aut Wyplosz Charles University of California, Berkeley; Haas School of Business; and INSEAD aut Economic Policy Oxford University Press 10/21(1995-10-01), 249-312 0266-4658 10:21<249 1995 10 economicpolicy https://doi.org/10.2307/1344591 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.2307/1344591 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Eichengreen Barry University of California, Berkeley; Haas School of Business; and INSEAD aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Rose Andrew K. University of California, Berkeley; Haas School of Business; and INSEAD aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Wyplosz Charles University of California, Berkeley; Haas School of Business; and INSEAD aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Economic Policy Oxford University Press 10/21(1995-10-01), 249-312 0266-4658 10:21<249 1995 10 economicpolicy Metadata rights reserved CC BY-NC-4.0 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-oxford