caa a22 4500 397550995 CHVBK 20180308164750.0 cr unu---uuuuu 161202e199608 xx s 000 0 eng 10.1006/jmsc.1996.0086 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)oxford-10.1006/jmsc.1996.0086 Ulltang Øyvind Institute of Marine Research, Department of Marine Resources, P.O. Box 1870, Nordnes, N-5024 Bergen, Norway Stock assessment and biological knowledge: can prediction uncertainty be reduced? [Elektronische Daten] [Øyvind Ulltang] The paper addresses whether we fully utilise our increasing biological knowledge in fish stock assessments. For illustrative purposes, repeated references are made to the assessment of the north-east Arctic cod stock. In many cases, existing knowledge may allow us to establish relationships for predicting short or medium term changes in vital population parameters determining mortality, growth, and recruitment. Ancillary variables in such relationships, with a priori justification for being chosen, could be parameters describing the state of the fish stock in question or the state of its biological or physical environment. Long time-series of biological data exist for several stocks, and these data series should be used for testing proposed relationships. Explanatory theories should be used for making predictions not dependent on the assumption that historical patterns will be repeated, increasing the empirical or informative content of our assessments. © 1996 International council for the Exploration of the Sea Articles nationallicence stock assessments nationallicence biological knowledge nationallicence predictions nationallicence explanatory theories nationallicence empirical content nationallicence predictions nationallicence north-east Arctic cod nationallicence ICES Journal of Marine Science Oxford University Press 53/4(1996-08), 659-675 1054-3139 53:4<659 1996 53 icesjms https://doi.org/10.1006/jmsc.1996.0086 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1006/jmsc.1996.0086 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 100 1- Ulltang Øyvind Institute of Marine Research, Department of Marine Resources, P.O. Box 1870, Nordnes, N-5024 Bergen, Norway NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- ICES Journal of Marine Science Oxford University Press 53/4(1996-08), 659-675 1054-3139 53:4<659 1996 53 icesjms Metadata rights reserved CC BY-NC-4.0 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-oxford