caa a22 4500 397559003 CHVBK 20180308164811.0 cr unu---uuuuu 161202e199609 xx s 000 0 eng 10.1093/wber/10.3.487 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)oxford-10.1093/wber/10.3.487 Roads, Land Use, and Deforestation: A Spatial Model Applied to Belize [Elektronische Daten] [Kenneth M. Chomitz, David A. Gray] Rural roads promote economic development, but they also facilitate deforestation. To explore this tradeoff, this article develops a spatially explicit model of land use and estimates probabilities of alternative land uses as a function of land characteristics and distance to market using a multinomial logit specification of this model. Controls are incorporated for the endogeneity of road placement. The model is applied to data for southern Belize, an area experiencing rapid expansion of both subsistence and commercial agriculture, using geographic information system (GIS) techniques to select sample points at 1-kilometer intervals. Market access, land quality, and tenure status affect the probability of agricultural land use synergistically, having differential effects on the likelihood of commercial versus semisubsistence farming. The results suggest that road building in areas with agriculturally poor soils and low population densities may be a "lose-lose” proposition, causing habitat fragmentation and providing low economic returns. © 1996 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / THE WORLD BANK Articles nationallicence Chomitz Kenneth M. aut Gray David A. aut The World Bank Economic Review Oxford University Press 10/3(1996-09), 487-512 0258-6770 10:3<487 1996 10 wber https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/10.3.487 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/10.3.487 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Chomitz Kenneth M. aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Gray David A. aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- The World Bank Economic Review Oxford University Press 10/3(1996-09), 487-512 0258-6770 10:3<487 1996 10 wber Metadata rights reserved CC BY-NC-4.0 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-oxford