caa a22 4500 397559410 CHVBK 20180308164812.0 cr unu---uuuuu 161202e199610 xx s 000 0 eng 10.1093/oxfordjournals.jae.a020914 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)oxford-10.1093/oxfordjournals.jae.a020914 Reinikka Ritva The World Bank The Credibility Problem in Trade Liberalisation: Empirical Evidence from Kenya [Elektronische Daten] [Ritva Reinikka] This paper quantifies the welfare cost created by speculative accumulation of imports in Kenya during four trade reforms between 1976-92. These episodes suffered from a lack of credibility because they were perceived to be either time-inconsistent or incompatible with the exchange rate, fiscal or monetary policy. Kenyan data confirms that the private sector was able to anticipate the fate of the reforms and that it hedged against their reversal by accumulating foreign exchange licences and bonded and actual imports. There are some indications of deferral of investment and increased liquidity during the abortive reforms. The speculative response seems to be self-fulfilling, as rapidly declining external reserves usually forced the government to abandon the reforms. The 1980 import liberalisation was the most costly attempt. © Centre for the Study of African Economies Articles nationallicence Journal of African Economies Oxford University Press 5/3(1996-10), 444-468 0963-8024 5:3<444 1996 5 jafeco https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.jae.a020914 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.jae.a020914 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 100 1- Reinikka Ritva The World Bank NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Journal of African Economies Oxford University Press 5/3(1996-10), 444-468 0963-8024 5:3<444 1996 5 jafeco Metadata rights reserved CC BY-NC-4.0 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-oxford