caa a22 4500 397571208 CHVBK 20180308164842.0 cr unu---uuuuu 161202e19961001xx s 000 0 eng 10.1093/ee/25.5.869 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)oxford-10.1093/ee/25.5.869 Régnière Jacques Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Laurentian Forestry Centre, 1055 du P.E.P.S., P.O. Box 3800, Sainte-Foy, PQ G1V 4C7, Canada Generalized Approach to Landscape-Wide Seasonal Forecasting with Temperature-Driven Simulation Models [Elektronische Daten] [Jacques Régnière] Determining and depicting the landscape-wide outcome of temperature-dependent ecological processes is important in the study of spatial patterns in insect ecology as well as in the efficient deployment of human and material resources for pest management. A generalized approach is proposed that consists of a temperature-driven simulation model that uses data from a limited number of strategically located points in the landscape as its input. Elevation, slope, and aspect are varied systematically for each point. Air temperature data are obtained as both real-time and climatic average data, matched with simulation points on the basis of distance, elevation, and climatic zones. Differences in latitude and elevation are compensated for with lapse rate transformations. Slope and aspect are combined into a single exposure expression, and overheating is calculated on the basis of incoming solar radiation. Landscape-wide projections of features in model output are obtained by algebraic transformation of a digital elevation model of the landscape, using a multiple regression equation relating the output feature to latitude, longitude, elevation, and exposure. The various sources of error involved in seasonal forecasting in insect ecology and management, as well as an outline of the procedure required to test the validity of landscape-wide projections, are discussed through a case study of the phenology of the spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana (Clemens). © 1996 Entomological Society of America Forum nationallicence landscape ecology nationallicence decision support nationallicence temperature-driven models nationallicence seasonality nationallicence forecasting nationallicence mapping nationallicence Environmental Entomology Oxford University Press 25/5(1996-10-01), 869-881 0046-225X 25:5<869 1996 25 ee https://doi.org/10.1093/ee/25.5.869 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1093/ee/25.5.869 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 100 1- Régnière Jacques Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Laurentian Forestry Centre, 1055 du P.E.P.S., P.O. Box 3800, Sainte-Foy, PQ G1V 4C7, Canada NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Environmental Entomology Oxford University Press 25/5(1996-10-01), 869-881 0046-225X 25:5<869 1996 25 ee Metadata rights reserved CC BY-NC-4.0 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-oxford