caa a22 4500 445300973 CHVBK 20180317142557.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20100501xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s11430-009-0186-9 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s11430-009-0186-9 Assessing and regulating the impacts of climate change on water resources in the Heihe watershed on the Loess Plateau of China [Elektronische Daten] [Zhi Li, WenZhao Liu, XunChang Zhang, FenLi Zheng] Climate change can cause considerable changes in water resources and assessing the potential impacts can provide important information for regional sustainable development. The objectives were to evaluate the possible impacts of climate change during 2010-2039 on water resources (runoff, soil water content, and evapotranspiration) in the Heihe watershed on the Loess Plateau of China and to further explore adaptive measures to cope with the changes. Projections of four climate models (CCSR/NIES, CGCM2, CSIRO-Mk2, and HadCM3) under three emission scenarios (A2, B2, and GGa) were used to estimate future changes in precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature based on Change Factor method. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to simulate the hydrologic responses to climate changes. The CA-Markov model was used to develop land use scenarios. Compared with the present climate, the climate models predicted a −2.3% to 7.8% change in annual precipitation, 0.7 to 2.2°C rises in maximum temperature, and 1.2 to 2.8°C rises in minimum temperature. Without consideration of land use change, SWAT predicted a −19.8% to 37.0% change for runoff, −5.5% to 17.2% change for soil water content, and 0.1% to 5.9% increase for evapotranspiration during 2010-2039 under all climate scenarios. Though the change of hydrometeorolocial variables are complex, they would possibly increase with great probability, and the hydrological regime would be influenced such as a decrease in runoff in winter months. With land use changes, the projected land use of 2015 would increase soil water content by 4.0% and surface runoff by 5.7% while slightly decrease evapotranspiration by 0.6% compared with the 2000 land use. This result showed that adjustment of land use patterns was capable of regulating water resources and could be used to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change. Science China Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2010 climate change nationallicence water resources nationallicence SWAT nationallicence the Loess Plateau nationallicence Li Zhi College of Resources and Environment, Northwest Agriculture & Forestry University, 712100, Yangling, China aut Liu WenZhao Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences & Ministry of Water Resources, 712100, Yangling, China aut Zhang XunChang USDA-ARS Grazinglands Research Laboratory, 73036, El Reno, Oklahoma, USA aut Zheng FenLi Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences & Ministry of Water Resources, 712100, Yangling, China aut Science China Earth Sciences SP Science China Press 53/5(2010-05-01), 710-720 1674-7313 53:5<710 2010 53 11430 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-009-0186-9 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-009-0186-9 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Li Zhi College of Resources and Environment, Northwest Agriculture & Forestry University, 712100, Yangling, China aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Liu WenZhao Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences & Ministry of Water Resources, 712100, Yangling, China aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Zhang XunChang USDA-ARS Grazinglands Research Laboratory, 73036, El Reno, Oklahoma, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Zheng FenLi Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences & Ministry of Water Resources, 712100, Yangling, China aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Science China Earth Sciences SP Science China Press 53/5(2010-05-01), 710-720 1674-7313 53:5<710 2010 53 11430 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer