caa a22 4500 445300981 CHVBK 20180317142557.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20100201xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s11430-009-0123-y doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s11430-009-0123-y A projection of future changes in summer precipitation and monsoon in East Asia [Elektronische Daten] [Ying Sun, YiHui Ding] The future potential changes in precipitation and monsoon circulation in the summer in East Asia are projected using the latest generation of coupled climate models under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario (a medium emission scenario). The multi-model ensemble means show that during the period of 2010-2099, the summer precipitation in East Asia will increase and experience a prominent change around the 2040s, with a small increase (∼1%) before the end of the 2040s and a large increase (∼9%) afterward. This kind of two-stage evolution characteristic of precipitation change can be seen most clearly in North China, and then in South China and in the mid and lower Yangtze River Valley. In 2010-2099, the projected precipitation pattern will be dominated by a pattern of "wet East China” that explains 33.6% of EOF total variance. The corresponded time coefficient will markedly increase after the 2040s, indicating a great contribution from this mode to the enhanced precipitation across all East China. Other precipitation patterns that prevail in the current climate only contribute a small proportion to the total variance, with no prominent liner trend in the future. By the late 21st century, the monsoon circulation will be stronger in East Asia. At low level, this is due to the intensification of southwesterly airflow north of the anticyclone over the western Pacific and the SCS, and at high level, it is caused by the increased northeasterly airflow east of the anticyclone over South Asia. The enhanced monsoon circulation will also experience a two-stage evolution in 2010-2099, with a prominent increase (by ∼0.6 m s−1) after the 2040s. The atmospheric water vapor content over East Asia will greatly increase (by ∼9%) at the end of 21st century. The water vapor transported northward into East China will be intensified and display a prominent increase around the 2040s similar to other examined variables. These indicate that the enhanced precipitation over East Asia is caused by the increases in both monsoon circulation and water vapor, which is greatly different from South Asia. Both the dynamical and thermal dynamic variables will evolve consistently in response to the global warming in East Asia, i.e., the intensified southwesterly monsoon airflow corresponding to the increased water vapor and southwesterly moisture transport. Science in China Press and Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2010 East Asian summer monsoon nationallicence precipitation nationallicence climate models nationallicence future projection nationallicence Sun Ying National Climate Center, 100081, Beijing, China aut Ding YiHui National Climate Center, 100081, Beijing, China aut Science China Earth Sciences SP Science in China Press 53/2(2010-02-01), 284-300 1674-7313 53:2<284 2010 53 11430 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-009-0123-y text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-009-0123-y text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Sun Ying National Climate Center, 100081, Beijing, China aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Ding YiHui National Climate Center, 100081, Beijing, China aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Science China Earth Sciences SP Science in China Press 53/2(2010-02-01), 284-300 1674-7313 53:2<284 2010 53 11430 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer