caa a22 4500 445301015 CHVBK 20180317142557.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20100201xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s11430-009-0199-4 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s11430-009-0199-4 Accuracy assessments and uncertainty analysis of spatially explicit modeling for land use/cover change and urbanization: A case in Beijing metropolitan area [Elektronische Daten] [Jie Zhang, YinKang Zhou, RenQiang Li, ZhaoJun Zhou, LiQuan Zhang, QingDong Shi, XiaoLing Pan] Spatially explicit modeling plays a vital role in land use/cover change and urbanization research as well as resources management; however, current models lack proper validation and fail to incorporate uncertainty into the formulation of model predictions. Consequently, policy makers and the general public may develop opinions based on potentially misleading research, which fails to allow for truly informed decisions. Here we use an uncertainty strategy of spatially explicit modeling combined with the series statistic of Kappa index for location and quantity to estimate the uncertainty of future predications and to determine model accuracy. We take the Beijing metropolitan area as an example to demonstrate the uncertainty in extrapolations of predictive land use change and urban sprawl with spatially explicit modeling at multiple resolutions. The sensitivity of scale effects is also discussed. The results show that an improvement in specification of location is more helpful in increasing accuracy as compared to an improvement in the specification of quantity at fine spatial resolutions. However, the spatial scale has great effects on modeling accuracy and correct due to chance tends to increase as resolution becomes coarser. The results allow us to understand the uncertainty when using spatially explicit models for land-use change or urbanization estimates. Science in China Press and Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2010 spatially explicit modeling nationallicence urbanization nationallicence accuracy assessment nationallicence uncertainty analysis nationallicence scale effect nationallicence Beijing metropolitan area nationallicence Zhang Jie State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University, 200062, Shanghai, China aut Zhou YinKang College of Geography and Ocean Sciences, Nanjing University, 210093, Nanjing, China aut Li RenQiang Research Center for Ecosystem Network, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100101, Beijing, China aut Zhou ZhaoJun Xinjiang Polytechnic College, 830091, Urumqi, China aut Zhang LiQuan State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University, 200062, Shanghai, China aut Shi QingDong Institute of Arid Ecology & Environment, Xinjiang University, 830046, Urumqi, China aut Pan XiaoLing Institute of Arid Ecology & Environment, Xinjiang University, 830046, Urumqi, China aut Science China Earth Sciences SP Science in China Press 53/2(2010-02-01), 173-180 1674-7313 53:2<173 2010 53 11430 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-009-0199-4 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-009-0199-4 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Zhang Jie State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University, 200062, Shanghai, China aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Zhou YinKang College of Geography and Ocean Sciences, Nanjing University, 210093, Nanjing, China aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Li RenQiang Research Center for Ecosystem Network, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100101, Beijing, China aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Zhou ZhaoJun Xinjiang Polytechnic College, 830091, Urumqi, China aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Zhang LiQuan State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University, 200062, Shanghai, China aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Shi QingDong Institute of Arid Ecology & Environment, Xinjiang University, 830046, Urumqi, China aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Pan XiaoLing Institute of Arid Ecology & Environment, Xinjiang University, 830046, Urumqi, China aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Science China Earth Sciences SP Science in China Press 53/2(2010-02-01), 173-180 1674-7313 53:2<173 2010 53 11430 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer