caa a22 4500 445302194 CHVBK 20180317142601.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20100201xx s 000 0 eng 10.1134/S0001433810010032 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1134/S0001433810010032 Arctic climate changes and possible conditions of Arctic navigation in the 21st century [Elektronische Daten] [V. Khon, I. Mokhov] Assessments of current and expected climatic changes in the Arctic Basin are obtained, including ice-cover characteristics influencing the duration of the navigation season on the Northern Sea Route (NSR) along Eurasia and the Northwest Passage (NWP) along North America. The ability of modern climate models to simulate the average duration of the navigation season and its changes over recent decades is estimated. The duration of the navigation season for the NSR and NWP in the 21st century is estimated using an ensemble of climate models. The assessments differ significantly for the NSR and NWP. Unlike the NSR, the NWP reveals no large changes in the navigation season in the first 30 years of the 21st century. From the multimodel simulations, the expected duration of the navigation period by the late 21st century will be approximately 3 to 6 months for the NSR and 2 to 4 months for the NWP under the moderate anthropogenic SRES-A1B scenario. Pleiades Publishing, Ltd., 2010 Khon V. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pyzhevskii per. 3, 119017, Moscow, Russia aut Mokhov I. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pyzhevskii per. 3, 119017, Moscow, Russia aut Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics SP MAIK Nauka/Interperiodica 46/1(2010-02-01), 14-20 0001-4338 46:1<14 2010 46 11485 https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433810010032 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433810010032 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Khon V. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pyzhevskii per. 3, 119017, Moscow, Russia aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Mokhov I. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pyzhevskii per. 3, 119017, Moscow, Russia aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics SP MAIK Nauka/Interperiodica 46/1(2010-02-01), 14-20 0001-4338 46:1<14 2010 46 11485 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer