caa a22 4500 445314540 CHVBK 20180317142641.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20110101xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s10552-010-9682-7 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s10552-010-9682-7 The contribution of postmenopausal hormone use cessation to the declining incidence of breast cancer [Elektronische Daten] [Brian Sprague, Amy Trentham-Dietz, Patrick Remington] The striking decline in United States breast cancer incidence since 2002 has been widely attributed to a reduction in postmenopausal hormone use, yet very little analysis has been conducted to quantify the contribution of changes in hormone use to the declining trend. We used literature-based estimates of the relative risk and the changing prevalence of hormone use to estimate the impact of hormone use on the decline in breast cancer incidence between 2002 and 2003 among women aged 40-79. For the base case of a 44% decline in hormone use and a relative risk for current use of 1.5, we estimated that 43% of the decline in incidence was attributable to hormone use. By exploring a range of parameter values, we found that high, unlikely values of the relative risk (i.e.,≥2.25) and/or the percent decline in hormone use (i.e.,≥75%) would be required to account for 100% of the observed decline in breast cancer incidence. We conclude that hormone use is unlikely to account for more than half of the observed decline in breast cancer incidence between 2002 and 2003. Further efforts are needed to quantify the potential contributions of other factors, such as the plateau in screening mammography utilization. Springer Science+Business Media B.V., 2010 Breast neoplasms nationallicence Hormone replacement therapy nationallicence Incidence nationallicence Epidemiology nationallicence WHI : Women's health initiative nationallicence RR : Relative risk nationallicence SEER : Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results nationallicence ER : Estrogen receptor nationallicence Sprague Brian Department of Surgery, University of Vermont, 05401, Burlington, VT, USA aut Trentham-Dietz Amy Department of Population Health Sciences, Carbone Cancer Center, University of Wisconsin, 53726, Madison, WI, USA aut Remington Patrick Department of Population Health Sciences, Carbone Cancer Center, University of Wisconsin, 53726, Madison, WI, USA aut Cancer Causes & Control Springer Netherlands 22/1(2011-01-01), 125-134 0957-5243 22:1<125 2011 22 10552 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10552-010-9682-7 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10552-010-9682-7 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Sprague Brian Department of Surgery, University of Vermont, 05401, Burlington, VT, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Trentham-Dietz Amy Department of Population Health Sciences, Carbone Cancer Center, University of Wisconsin, 53726, Madison, WI, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Remington Patrick Department of Population Health Sciences, Carbone Cancer Center, University of Wisconsin, 53726, Madison, WI, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Cancer Causes & Control Springer Netherlands 22/1(2011-01-01), 125-134 0957-5243 22:1<125 2011 22 10552 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer