caa a22 4500 445315318 CHVBK 20180317142644.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20110301xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s10552-010-9708-1 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s10552-010-9708-1 Has the lung cancer risk from smoking increased over the last fifty years? [Elektronische Daten] [David Burns, Christy Anderson, Nigel Gray] Background: We examine whether the lung cancer risk due to smoking has increased over time. Methods: Lung cancer risk equations based on prospective mortality data collected from 1960 to 1972 were applied to 5-year birth-cohort-specific estimates of smoking behaviors among white males to estimate lung cancer mortality rates for U.S. white males from 1960 to 2000. These estimated rates were compared to U.S. white male mortality rates for the same birth cohorts. Results: Observed birth-cohort-specific U.S. lung cancer mortality rates are substantially higher than those expected from changes in smoking behaviors, and the proportional difference increases with advancing calendar year. This trend persisted even when the duration term was increased in the risk equation. However, adjusting for changes in cigarette design over time by adding a term for the duration of smoking after 1972 resulted in the predicted rates closely approximating the observed U.S. mortality rates. Conclusion: Lung cancer risk estimates observed during the 1960s under predict current lung cancer mortality rates in U.S. white males. Adjustment for the duration of smoking after 1972 results in estimates that reasonably approximate the observed U.S. lung cancer mortality, suggesting that lung cancer risks from smoking are increasing in the United States coincident with changes in cigarette design. The Author(s), 2010 Cigarettes nationallicence Lung cancer nationallicence Changing risk nationallicence Changing cigarettes nationallicence Burns David UCSD School of Medicine, 1120 Solana Dr, Del Mar, San Diego, CA, USA aut Anderson Christy UCSD School of Medicine, 1120 Solana Dr, Del Mar, San Diego, CA, USA aut Gray Nigel Cancer Council of Victoria, Melbourne, VIC, Australia aut Cancer Causes & Control Springer Netherlands 22/3(2011-03-01), 389-397 0957-5243 22:3<389 2011 22 10552 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10552-010-9708-1 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10552-010-9708-1 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Burns David UCSD School of Medicine, 1120 Solana Dr, Del Mar, San Diego, CA, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Anderson Christy UCSD School of Medicine, 1120 Solana Dr, Del Mar, San Diego, CA, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Gray Nigel Cancer Council of Victoria, Melbourne, VIC, Australia aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Cancer Causes & Control Springer Netherlands 22/3(2011-03-01), 389-397 0957-5243 22:3<389 2011 22 10552 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer