caa a22 4500 445316683 CHVBK 20180317142650.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20110501xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s11146-009-9197-8 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s11146-009-9197-8 House Prices and Economic Growth [Elektronische Daten] [Norman Miller, Liang Peng, Michael Sklarz] Using quarterly data for all 379 metropolitan statistic areas (MSAs) in the U.S. from 1980:1 to 2008:2, this paper empirically studies the effect of house prices on local Gross Metropolitan Product (GMP). We compare the effects of predictable and unpredictable house price changes, which we use to capture the collateral and wealth effects of house prices respectively. We further analyze the relationship between the effects and household borrowing constraints, as well as the temporal pattern of the effects. Our analysis provides the following findings. First, house price changes have significant effects on GMP growth, and the effect of predictable changes (the collateral effect) is about three times stronger than the effect of unpredictable changes (the wealth effect). Second, the persistent component of predictable changes has a stronger collateral effect than the novel component. Third, when households are more financially constrained, the collateral effect is stronger, the wealth effect is weaker, and the total effect remains unchanged. Finally, the effects last for eight quarters, and peak on the fourth quarter after house price changes take place. Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, 2009 Economic growth nationallicence House prices nationallicence Wealth effect nationallicence Collateral effect nationallicence Common correlated effects estimators nationallicence Long horizon predictability nationallicence Miller Norman School of Business Administration, University of San Diego, 5998 Alcalá Park, 92110-2492, San Diego, CA, USA aut Peng Liang Leeds School of Business, University of Colorado at Boulder, 419 UCB, 80309-0419, Boulder, CO, USA aut Sklarz Michael Collateral Analytics, 3465 Waialae Avenue, Suite 330, 96816, Honolulu, HI, USA aut The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics Springer US; http://www.springer-ny.com 42/4(2011-05-01), 522-541 0895-5638 42:4<522 2011 42 11146 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-009-9197-8 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-009-9197-8 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Miller Norman School of Business Administration, University of San Diego, 5998 Alcalá Park, 92110-2492, San Diego, CA, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Peng Liang Leeds School of Business, University of Colorado at Boulder, 419 UCB, 80309-0419, Boulder, CO, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Sklarz Michael Collateral Analytics, 3465 Waialae Avenue, Suite 330, 96816, Honolulu, HI, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics Springer US; http://www.springer-ny.com 42/4(2011-05-01), 522-541 0895-5638 42:4<522 2011 42 11146 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer