caa a22 4500 445330147 CHVBK 20180317142734.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20110801xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00285-010-0372-6 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00285-010-0372-6 Household epidemic models with varying infection response [Elektronische Daten] [Frank Ball, Tom Britton, David Sirl] This paper is concerned with SIR (susceptible → infected → removed) household epidemic models in which the infection response may be either mild or severe, with the type of response also affecting the infectiousness of an individual. Two different models are analysed. In the first model, the infection status of an individual is predetermined, perhaps due to partial immunity, and in the second, the infection status of an individual depends on the infection status of its infector and on whether the individual was infected by a within- or between-household contact. The first scenario may be modelled using a multitype household epidemic model, and the second scenario by a model we denote by the infector-dependent-severity household epidemic model. Large population results of the two models are derived, with the focus being on the distribution of the total numbers of mild and severe cases in a typical household, of any given size, in the event that the epidemic becomes established. The aim of the paper is to investigate whether it is possible to determine which of the two underlying explanations is causing the varying response when given final size household outbreak data containing mild and severe cases. We conduct numerical studies which show that, given data on sufficiently many households, it is generally possible to discriminate between the two models by comparing the Kullback-Leibler divergence for the two fitted models to these data. Springer-Verlag, 2010 Household epidemic model nationallicence Infector dependent severity nationallicence Kullback-Leibler divergence nationallicence Multitype epidemic nationallicence Varying infection response nationallicence Final outcome data nationallicence Ball Frank School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham, University Park, NG7 2RD, Nottingham, UK aut Britton Tom Department of Mathematics, Stockholm University, 106 91, Stockholm, Sweden aut Sirl David School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham, University Park, NG7 2RD, Nottingham, UK aut Journal of Mathematical Biology Springer-Verlag 63/2(2011-08-01), 309-337 0303-6812 63:2<309 2011 63 285 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-010-0372-6 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-010-0372-6 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Ball Frank School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham, University Park, NG7 2RD, Nottingham, UK aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Britton Tom Department of Mathematics, Stockholm University, 106 91, Stockholm, Sweden aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Sirl David School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham, University Park, NG7 2RD, Nottingham, UK aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Journal of Mathematical Biology Springer-Verlag 63/2(2011-08-01), 309-337 0303-6812 63:2<309 2011 63 285 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer