caa a22 4500 445333456 CHVBK 20180317142745.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20110601xx s 000 0 eng 10.1245/s10434-010-1512-3 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1245/s10434-010-1512-3 An Interactive Tool for Individualized Estimation of Conditional Survival in Rectal Cancer [Elektronische Daten] [Samuel Wang, Amanda Wissel, Join Luh, C. Fuller, Jayashree Kalpathy-Cramer, Charles Thomas Jr] Background: For rectal cancer patients who have already survived a period of time after diagnosis, survival probability changes and is more accurately depicted by conditional survival. The specific aim of this study was to develop an interactive tool for individualized estimation of changing prognosis for rectal cancer patients. Methods: A multivariate Cox proportional hazards (CPH) survival model was constructed using data from rectal cancer patients diagnosed from 1994 to 2003 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Age, race, sex, and stage were used as covariates in the survival prediction model. The primary outcome variable was overall survival conditional on having survived up to 5years from diagnosis. Results: Data from 42,830 rectal cancer patients met the inclusion criteria. The multivariate CPH model showed age, race, sex, and stage as significant independent predictors of survival. The survival prediction model demonstrated good calibration and discrimination, with a bootstrap-corrected concordance index of 0.75. A web-based prediction tool was built from this regression model that can compute individualized estimates of changing prognosis over time. Conclusions: An interactive prediction modeling tool can estimate prognosis for rectal cancer patients who have already survived a period of time after diagnosis and treatment. Having more accurate prognostic information can empower both patients and clinicians to be able to make more appropriate decisions regarding follow-up, surveillance testing, and future treatment. Society of Surgical Oncology, 2011 Wang Samuel Department of Radiation Medicine, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, OR, USA aut Wissel Amanda Department of Radiation Medicine, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, OR, USA aut Luh Join Department of Radiation Oncology, St. Joseph Hospital, Eureka, CA, USA aut Fuller C. Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Texas Health Science Center, San Antonio, TX, USA aut Kalpathy-Cramer Jayashree Department of Medical Informatics and Clinical Epidemiology, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, OR, USA aut Thomas Jr Charles Department of Radiation Medicine, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, OR, USA aut Annals of Surgical Oncology Springer-Verlag 18/6(2011-06-01), 1547-1552 1068-9265 18:6<1547 2011 18 10434 https://doi.org/10.1245/s10434-010-1512-3 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1245/s10434-010-1512-3 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Wang Samuel Department of Radiation Medicine, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, OR, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Wissel Amanda Department of Radiation Medicine, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, OR, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Luh Join Department of Radiation Oncology, St. Joseph Hospital, Eureka, CA, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Fuller C. Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Texas Health Science Center, San Antonio, TX, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Kalpathy-Cramer Jayashree Department of Medical Informatics and Clinical Epidemiology, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, OR, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Thomas Jr Charles Department of Radiation Medicine, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, OR, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Annals of Surgical Oncology Springer-Verlag 18/6(2011-06-01), 1547-1552 1068-9265 18:6<1547 2011 18 10434 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer