caa a22 4500 445333944 CHVBK 20180317142747.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20110901xx s 000 0 eng 10.1245/s10434-011-1626-2 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1245/s10434-011-1626-2 Predicting Breast Cancer Recurrence Following Breast-Conserving Therapy: A Single-Institution Analysis Consisting of 764 Chinese Breast Cancer Cases [Elektronische Daten] [Shuang Li, Ke-Da Yu, Lei Fan, Yi-Feng Hou, Zhi-Ming Shao] Background: The purpose of this study was to identify prognostic factors related to recurrence in women treated with breast-conserving surgery (BCS) and to predict the recurrence following breast-conserving therapy (BCT) by constructing a prediction model. Methods: The retrospective analysis included 764 consecutive invasive breast cancer patients treated with BCT in Shanghai Cancer Center between 1995 and 2008. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to identify independent risk factors for locoregional recurrence (LRR) and all the recurrence events. Logistic regression was used to construct a recurrence prediction model, which was further evaluated by receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. Results: The 5-year locoregional recurrence-free survival (LRRFS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) rates were 90.8 and 88.4%, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed 1 independent predictive factor for LRRFS (lymph node, P=.0049) and three independent predictive factors for RFS (lymph node, P=.0036; molecular subtype, P=.0021; histological grade, P=.041). These three variables entered into logistic regression to establish a recurrent prediction model. ROC curve showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of the established model was 0.70 (95% confidence interval: 0.61-0.78). This model could classify patients into "high-risk recurrence” and "low-risk recurrence” groups and could successfully predict their prognosis (P<.00001). Conclusions: The information of lymph node status, molecular subtype, and grade may help doctors to evaluate recurrence risk of a woman treated with BCT. Our new model might be helpful in clinical practice for recurrence prediction after BCT in Chinese patients, though further validation studies are needed. Society of Surgical Oncology, 2011 Li Shuang Department of Breast Surgery, Cancer Center/Cancer Institute, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China aut Yu Ke-Da Department of Breast Surgery, Cancer Center/Cancer Institute, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China aut Fan Lei Department of Breast Surgery, Cancer Center/Cancer Institute, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China aut Hou Yi-Feng Department of Breast Surgery, Cancer Center/Cancer Institute, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China aut Shao Zhi-Ming Department of Breast Surgery, Cancer Center/Cancer Institute, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China aut Annals of Surgical Oncology Springer-Verlag 18/9(2011-09-01), 2492-2499 1068-9265 18:9<2492 2011 18 10434 https://doi.org/10.1245/s10434-011-1626-2 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1245/s10434-011-1626-2 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Li Shuang Department of Breast Surgery, Cancer Center/Cancer Institute, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Yu Ke-Da Department of Breast Surgery, Cancer Center/Cancer Institute, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Fan Lei Department of Breast Surgery, Cancer Center/Cancer Institute, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Hou Yi-Feng Department of Breast Surgery, Cancer Center/Cancer Institute, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Shao Zhi-Ming Department of Breast Surgery, Cancer Center/Cancer Institute, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Annals of Surgical Oncology Springer-Verlag 18/9(2011-09-01), 2492-2499 1068-9265 18:9<2492 2011 18 10434 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer