caa a22 4500 445338946 CHVBK 20180317142805.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20111201xx s 000 0 eng 10.1245/s10434-011-1805-1 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1245/s10434-011-1805-1 The Revised ACPGBI Model is a Simple and Accurate Predictor of Operative Mortality After Potentially Curative Resection of Colorectal Cancer [Elektronische Daten] [Colin Richards, E. Leitch, John Anderson, Ruth McKee, Donald McMillan, Paul Horgan] Background: The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland (ACPGBI) risk-adjustment model for colorectal cancer surgery has been recently revised. The aim of the present study was to compare the performance of the revised ACPGBI model, the original ACPGBI model, P-POSSUM, and CR-POSSUM, in the prediction of operative mortality after resection of colorectal cancer. Methods: A total of 423 patients who underwent potentially curative resection of colorectal cancer at a single institution (1997-2007) were included. Data used in the construction of the ACPGBI model was collected prospectively. The models were compared by examining observed to expected (O:E) ratios, the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) goodness-of-fit test, and area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) analysis. Results: The 30-day mortality rate was 4%. The performance of the models was as follows: revised ACPGBI model (O:E ratio=1.05, AUC=0.73, H-L=11.02), original ACPGBI model (O:E ratio=0.58, AUC=0.76, H-L=14.23), P-POSSUM (O:E ratio=0.87, AUC=0.79, H-L=10.63), and CR-POSSUM (O:E ratio=0.63, AUC=0.84, H-L=15.84). In subgroup analysis, the revised ACPGBI model performed well in both elective cases (O:E ratio=1.06) and emergency cases (O:E ratio=0.91). Conclusions: The revised ACPGBI model is simple to construct and accurately predicts operative mortality after potentially curative resection of colorectal cancer. Society of Surgical Oncology, 2011 Richards Colin Glasgow University Department of Surgery, Glasgow Royal Infirmary, Glasgow, UK aut Leitch E. Glasgow University Department of Surgery, Glasgow Royal Infirmary, Glasgow, UK aut Anderson John Glasgow University Department of Surgery, Glasgow Royal Infirmary, Glasgow, UK aut McKee Ruth Glasgow University Department of Surgery, Glasgow Royal Infirmary, Glasgow, UK aut McMillan Donald Glasgow University Department of Surgery, Glasgow Royal Infirmary, Glasgow, UK aut Horgan Paul Glasgow University Department of Surgery, Glasgow Royal Infirmary, Glasgow, UK aut Annals of Surgical Oncology Springer-Verlag 18/13(2011-12-01), 3680-3685 1068-9265 18:13<3680 2011 18 10434 https://doi.org/10.1245/s10434-011-1805-1 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1245/s10434-011-1805-1 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Richards Colin Glasgow University Department of Surgery, Glasgow Royal Infirmary, Glasgow, UK aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Leitch E. Glasgow University Department of Surgery, Glasgow Royal Infirmary, Glasgow, UK aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Anderson John Glasgow University Department of Surgery, Glasgow Royal Infirmary, Glasgow, UK aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- McKee Ruth Glasgow University Department of Surgery, Glasgow Royal Infirmary, Glasgow, UK aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- McMillan Donald Glasgow University Department of Surgery, Glasgow Royal Infirmary, Glasgow, UK aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Horgan Paul Glasgow University Department of Surgery, Glasgow Royal Infirmary, Glasgow, UK aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Annals of Surgical Oncology Springer-Verlag 18/13(2011-12-01), 3680-3685 1068-9265 18:13<3680 2011 18 10434 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer