caa a22 4500 445346310 CHVBK 20180317142830.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20110801xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s11207-011-9810-x doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s11207-011-9810-x Online Multi-step Ahead Prediction of Time-Varying Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Indices via Adaptive Neurofuzzy Modeling and Recursive Spectral Analysis [Elektronische Daten] [Masoud Mirmomeni, Caro Lucas, Babak Araabi, Behzad Moshiri, Mohammad Bidar] The time-varying Sun as the main source of space weather affects the Earth's magnetosphere by emitting hot magnetized plasma in the form of solar wind into interplanetary space. Solar and geomagnetic activity indices and their chaotic characteristics vary abruptly during solar and geomagnetic storms. This variation depicts the difficulties in modeling and long-term prediction of solar and geomagnetic storms. On the other hand, the combination of neurofuzzy models and spectral analysis has been a subject of interest due to their many practical applications in modeling and predicting complex phenomena. However, these approaches should be trained by algorithms that need to be carried out by an offline data set, which influences their performance in online modeling and prediction of time-varying phenomena. This paper proposes an adaptive approach for multi-step ahead prediction of space weather indices by extending the regular singular spectrum analysis and locally linear neurofuzzy models to adaptive approaches. The combination of these recursive approaches fulfills requirements of long-term prediction of solar and geomagnetic activity indices. The results demonstrate the power of the proposed method in online prediction of space weather indices. Springer Science+Business Media B.V., 2011 Space weather nationallicence Geomagnetic disturbance nationallicence Multi-step ahead prediction nationallicence Adaptive neurofuzzy models nationallicence Recursive spectral analysis nationallicence Mirmomeni Masoud Control and Intelligent Processing Center of Excellence, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran aut Lucas Caro Control and Intelligent Processing Center of Excellence, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran aut Araabi Babak Control and Intelligent Processing Center of Excellence, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran aut Moshiri Behzad Control and Intelligent Processing Center of Excellence, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran aut Bidar Mohammad Department of Mathematics, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran aut Solar Physics Springer Netherlands 272/1(2011-08-01), 189-213 0038-0938 272:1<189 2011 272 11207 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-011-9810-x text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-011-9810-x text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Mirmomeni Masoud Control and Intelligent Processing Center of Excellence, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Lucas Caro Control and Intelligent Processing Center of Excellence, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Araabi Babak Control and Intelligent Processing Center of Excellence, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Moshiri Behzad Control and Intelligent Processing Center of Excellence, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Bidar Mohammad Department of Mathematics, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Solar Physics Springer Netherlands 272/1(2011-08-01), 189-213 0038-0938 272:1<189 2011 272 11207 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer