caa a22 4500 445346574 CHVBK 20180317142830.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20110301xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s11207-010-9689-y doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s11207-010-9689-y Norquist Donald AFRL/RVBXS, 29 Randolph Road, 01731-3010, Hanscom AFB, MA, USA aut An Analysis of the Sunspot Groups and Flares ofSolarCycle23 [Elektronische Daten] [Donald Norquist] Designing a statistical solar flare forecasting technique can benefit greatly from knowledge of the flare frequency of occurrence with respect to sunspot groups. This study analyzed sunspot groups and Hα and X-ray flares reported for the period 1997 - 2007. Annual catalogs were constructed, listing the days that numbered sunspot groups were observed (designated sunspot group-days, SSG-Ds) and for each day a record for each associated Hα flare of importance category one or greater and normal or bright brightness and for each X-ray flare of intensity C 5 or higher. The catalogs were then analyzed to produce frequency distributions of SSG-Ds by year, sunspot group class, likelihood of producing at least one flare overall and by sunspot group class, and frequency of occurrence of numbers of flares per day and flare intensity category. Only 3% of SSG-Ds produced a substantial Hα flare and 7% had a significant X-ray flare. We found that mature, complex sunspot groups were more likely than simple sunspot groups to produce a flare, but the latter were more prevalent than the former. More than half of the SSG-Ds with flares had a maximum intensity flare greater than the lowest category (C-class of intensity five and higher). The fact that certain sunspot group classes had flaring probabilities significantly higher than the combined probabilities of the intensity categories when all SSG-Ds were considered suggest that it might be best to first predict the flaring probability. For sunspot groups found likely to flare, a separate diagnosis of maximum flare intensity category appears feasible. US Government, 2010 Flare probability nationallicence Solar flares nationallicence Sunspot groups nationallicence Sunspot group classes nationallicence Solar Physics Springer Netherlands 269/1(2011-03-01), 111-127 0038-0938 269:1<111 2011 269 11207 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-010-9689-y text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-010-9689-y text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 100 1- Norquist Donald AFRL/RVBXS, 29 Randolph Road, 01731-3010, Hanscom AFB, MA, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Solar Physics Springer Netherlands 269/1(2011-03-01), 111-127 0038-0938 269:1<111 2011 269 11207 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer