caa a22 4500 445347074 CHVBK 20180317142832.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20111001xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s11207-011-9861-z doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s11207-011-9861-z A Stochastic Prediction Model for the Sunspot Cycles [Elektronische Daten] [A. Sabarinath, A. Anilkumar] A stochastic prediction model for the sunspot cycle is proposed. The prediction model is based on a modified binary mixture of Laplace distribution functions and a moving-average model over the estimated model parameters. A six-parameter modified binary mixture of Laplace distribution functions is used for the modeling of the shape of a generic sunspot cycle. The model parameters are estimated for 23 sunspot cycles independently, and the primary prediction-model parameters are derived from these estimated model parameters using a moving-average stochastic model. A correction factor (hump factor) is introduced to make an initial prediction. The hump factor is computed for a given sunspot cycle as the ratio of the model estimated after the completion of a sunspot cycle (post-facto model) and the prediction of the moving-average model. The hump factors can be applied one at a time over the moving-average prediction model to get a final prediction of a sunspot cycle. The present model is used to predict the characteristics of Sunspot Cycle 24. The methodology is validated using the previous Sunspot Cycles 21, 22, and 23, which shows the adequacy and the applicability of the prediction model. The statistics of the variations of sunspot numbers at high solar activity are used to provide the lower and upper bound for the predictions using the present model. Springer Science+Business Media B.V., 2011 Sunspot cycle nationallicence Prediction nationallicence Moving average nationallicence Binary mixture nationallicence Laplace distribution nationallicence Hump factor nationallicence Sabarinath A. Applied Mathematics Division, Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre, 695022, Thiruvananthapuram, India aut Anilkumar A. Applied Mathematics Division, Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre, 695022, Thiruvananthapuram, India aut Solar Physics Springer Netherlands 273/1(2011-10-01), 255-265 0038-0938 273:1<255 2011 273 11207 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-011-9861-z text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-011-9861-z text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Sabarinath A. Applied Mathematics Division, Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre, 695022, Thiruvananthapuram, India aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Anilkumar A. Applied Mathematics Division, Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre, 695022, Thiruvananthapuram, India aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Solar Physics Springer Netherlands 273/1(2011-10-01), 255-265 0038-0938 273:1<255 2011 273 11207 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer