caa a22 4500 445348267 CHVBK 20180317142836.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20110601xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s11192-011-0357-2 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s11192-011-0357-2 Forecasting trends of development of psychology from a bibliometric perspective [Elektronische Daten] [Günter Krampen, Alexander von Eye, Gabriel Schui] Bibliometric data on psychology publications from 1977 through 2008 are modeled and forecasted for the 10years following 2008. Data refer to the raw frequencies of the PsycINFO (94% English-language, mainly Anglo-American publications) and the English-language documents of PSYNDEX (publications from the German-speaking countries). The series were modelled by way of exponential smoothing. In contrast to Single Moving Average methods which do not weigh observations, exponential smoothing assigns differential weights to observations. Weights reflect the distance from the most recent data point. Results suggest strongly expanding publication activities which can be represented by exponential functions. In addition, forecasted publication activities, estimated based on psychology publication frequencies in the past, show positive bibliometric trends in the Anglo-American research community. These trends go in parallel the bibliometric trends for the English-language publications of German-speaking authors. However, while positive trends were forecasted for all psychological subdisciplines of the Anglo-American publication database PsycINFO, negative bibliometric trends were estimated for English-language publications from German-speaking authors in 6 out of 20 subdisciplines. Akadémiai Kiadó, Budapest, Hungary, 2011 Bibliometry nationallicence Scientometry nationallicence Psychology nationallicence History of psychology nationallicence Forecasted developmental trends nationallicence Krampen Günter Leibniz-Institute for Psychology Information (ZPID), University of Trier, Trier, Germany aut von Eye Alexander Department of Psychology, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA aut Schui Gabriel Leibniz-Institute for Psychology Information (ZPID), University of Trier, Trier, Germany aut Scientometrics Springer Netherlands 87/3(2011-06-01), 687-694 0138-9130 87:3<687 2011 87 11192 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-011-0357-2 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-011-0357-2 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Krampen Günter Leibniz-Institute for Psychology Information (ZPID), University of Trier, Trier, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- von Eye Alexander Department of Psychology, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Schui Gabriel Leibniz-Institute for Psychology Information (ZPID), University of Trier, Trier, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Scientometrics Springer Netherlands 87/3(2011-06-01), 687-694 0138-9130 87:3<687 2011 87 11192 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer