caa a22 4500 445349492 CHVBK 20180317142839.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20110201xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s11192-010-0232-6 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s11192-010-0232-6 Arbesman Samuel Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA aut Quantifying the ease of scientific discovery [Elektronische Daten] [Samuel Arbesman] It has long been known that scientific output proceeds on an exponential increase, or more properly, a logistic growth curve. The interplay between effort and discovery is clear, and the nature of the functional form has been thought to be due to many changes in the scientific process over time. Here I show a quantitative method for examining the ease of scientific progress, another necessary component in understanding scientific discovery. Using examples from three different scientific disciplines—mammalian species, chemical elements, and minor planets—I find the ease of discovery to conform to an exponential decay. In addition, I show how the pace of scientific discovery can be best understood as the outcome of both scientific output and ease of discovery. A quantitative study of the ease of scientific discovery in the aggregate, such as done here, has the potential to provide a great deal of insight into both the nature of future discoveries and the technical processes behind discoveries in science. Akadémiai Kiadó, Budapest, Hungary, 2010 Discovery nationallicence Difficulty nationallicence Ease nationallicence Model nationallicence Mammals nationallicence Elements nationallicence Minor planets nationallicence Scientometrics Springer Netherlands 86/2(2011-02-01), 245-250 0138-9130 86:2<245 2011 86 11192 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-010-0232-6 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-010-0232-6 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 100 1- Arbesman Samuel Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Scientometrics Springer Netherlands 86/2(2011-02-01), 245-250 0138-9130 86:2<245 2011 86 11192 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer