caa a22 4500 445367105 CHVBK 20180317142934.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20111101xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00484-011-0458-x doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00484-011-0458-x Climate change, phenological shifts, eco-evolutionary responses and population viability: toward a unifying predictive approach [Elektronische Daten] [Stéphanie Jenouvrier, Marcel Visser] The debate on emission targets of greenhouse gasses designed to limit global climate change has to take into account the ecological consequences. One of the clearest ecological consequences is shifts in phenology. Linking these shifts to changes in population viability under various greenhouse gasses emission scenarios requires a unifying framework. We propose a box-in-a-box modeling approach that couples population models to phenological change. This approach unifies population modeling with both ecological responses to climate change as well as evolutionary processes. We advocate a mechanistic embedded correlative approach, where the link from genes to population is established using a periodic matrix population model. This periodic model has several major advantages: (1) it can include complex seasonal behaviors allowing an easy link with phenological shifts; (2) it provides the structure of the population at each phase, including the distribution of genotypes and phenotypes, allowing a link with evolutionary processes; and (3) it can incorporate the effect of climate at different time periods. We believe that the way climatologists have approached the problem, using atmosphere-ocean coupled circulation models in which components are gradually included and linked to each other, can provide a valuable example to ecologists. We hope that ecologists will take up this challenge and that our preliminary modeling framework will stimulate research toward a unifying predictive model of the ecological consequences of climate change. The Author(s), 2011 Eco-evolutionary nationallicence Periodic matrix model nationallicence Population viability nationallicence Predictive model nationallicence Climate change nationallicence Jenouvrier Stéphanie Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 02540, Woods Hole, MA, USA aut Visser Marcel Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), P.O. Box 50, 6700 AB, Wageningen, The Netherlands aut International Journal of Biometeorology Springer-Verlag 55/6(2011-11-01), 905-919 0020-7128 55:6<905 2011 55 484 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-011-0458-x text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-011-0458-x text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Jenouvrier Stéphanie Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 02540, Woods Hole, MA, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Visser Marcel Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), P.O. Box 50, 6700 AB, Wageningen, The Netherlands aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- International Journal of Biometeorology Springer-Verlag 55/6(2011-11-01), 905-919 0020-7128 55:6<905 2011 55 484 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer