caa a22 4500 445367210 CHVBK 20180317142934.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20110501xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00484-010-0346-9 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00484-010-0346-9 Forecasting ragweed pollen characteristics with nonparametric regression methods over the most polluted areas in Europe [Elektronische Daten] [László Makra, István Matyasovszky, Michel Thibaudon, Maira Bonini] Nonparametric time-varying regression methods were developed to forecast daily ragweed pollen concentration, and the probability of the exceedance of a given concentration threshold 1day ahead. Five-day and 10-day predictions of the start and end of the pollen season were also addressed with a nonparametric regression technique combining regression analysis with the method of temperature sum. Our methods were applied to three of the most polluted regions in Europe, namely Lyon (Rhône Valley, France), Legnano (Po River Plain, Italy) and Szeged (Great Plain, Hungary). For a 1-day prediction of both the daily pollen concentration and daily threshold exceedance, the order of these cities from the smallest to largest prediction errors was Legnano, Lyon, Szeged and Legnano, Szeged, Lyon, respectively. The most important predictor for each location was the pollen concentration of previous days. The second main predictor was precipitation for Lyon, and temperature for Legnano and Szeged. Wind speed should be considered for daily concentration at Legnano, and for daily pollen threshold exceedances at Lyon and Szeged. Prediction capabilities compared to the annual cycles for the start and end of the pollen season decreased from west to east. The order of the cities from the lowest to largest errors for the end of the pollen season was Lyon, Legnano, Szeged for both the 5- and 10-day predictions, while for the start of the pollen season the order was Legnano, Lyon, Szeged for 5-day predictions, and Legnano, Szeged, Lyon for 10-day predictions. ISB, 2010 Daily concentration nationallicence Pollen threshold exceedance nationallicence Pollen season nationallicence Start date nationallicence End date nationallicence Makra László Department of Climatology and Landscape Ecology, University of Szeged, P.O.B. 653, 6701, Szeged, Hungary aut Matyasovszky István Department of Meteorology, Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter st. 1/A, 1117, Budapest, Hungary aut Thibaudon Michel RNSA (Aerobiology Network of France), 69610, La Parličre, France aut Bonini Maira Department of Medical Prevention, ASL (Local Health Unit) of the Province of Milan 1, Public Health Service, via Spagliardi 19, 20015, Parabiago, Milan, Italy aut International Journal of Biometeorology Springer-Verlag 55/3(2011-05-01), 361-371 0020-7128 55:3<361 2011 55 484 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-010-0346-9 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-010-0346-9 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Makra László Department of Climatology and Landscape Ecology, University of Szeged, P.O.B. 653, 6701, Szeged, Hungary aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Matyasovszky István Department of Meteorology, Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter st. 1/A, 1117, Budapest, Hungary aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Thibaudon Michel RNSA (Aerobiology Network of France), 69610, La Parličre, France aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Bonini Maira Department of Medical Prevention, ASL (Local Health Unit) of the Province of Milan 1, Public Health Service, via Spagliardi 19, 20015, Parabiago, Milan, Italy aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- International Journal of Biometeorology Springer-Verlag 55/3(2011-05-01), 361-371 0020-7128 55:3<361 2011 55 484 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer