caa a22 4500 445367237 CHVBK 20180317142934.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20110501xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00484-010-0345-x doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00484-010-0345-x The reported incidence of campylobacteriosis modelled as a function of earlier temperatures and numbers of cases, Montreal, Canada, 1990-2006 [Elektronische Daten] [Robert Allard, Céline Plante, Céline Garnier, Tom Kosatsky] Previous studies have detected an effect of earlier temperatures on the incidence of campylobacteriosis in humans, but without adjustment for earlier numbers of cases of the disease. We estimated the effect of temperature on the number of cases notified by week in Montreal, Canada, from 1 January 1990 to 26 March 2006, simultaneously with the effect of the numbers of cases notified in the preceding weeks. The current campylobacteriosis count (week 0) was modelled by negative binomial regression, with earlier weekly average temperatures and earlier counts as predictors. Secular trends were accounted for by cubic spline functions and seasonal variations by sine-cosine functions. Indicator variables identified weeks with fewer than 5 working days. In the final statistical model, a 1°C increase in temperature above 10°C during any of weeks −1 to −6 was associated with a 0.8% (95% CI: 0.3% to 1.3%) increase in the current count. For each additional notified case during any of weeks −1 to −5 or −9 to −12, the increase in the current count was approximately 0.5% (95% CI: 0.2% to 1.0%). Thus, earlier temperatures and earlier counts have independent effects, that of temperatures being the larger one. The temperature effect is too small to require short term public health planning. However, in Montreal, an increase in average temperature of the order of 4.5°C, forecast by some for 2055, could produce a 23% increase in incidence, resulting in about 4,000 excess cases per year. ISB, 2010 Campylobacteriosis nationallicence Temperature nationallicence Time series nationallicence Climate change nationallicence Allard Robert Public Health Department, Montreal Health and Social Services Agency, 1301 Sherbrooke St. East, H2L 1M3, Montreal, Canada aut Plante Céline Public Health Department, Montreal Health and Social Services Agency, 1301 Sherbrooke St. East, H2L 1M3, Montreal, Canada aut Garnier Céline Public Health Department, Montreal Health and Social Services Agency, 1301 Sherbrooke St. East, H2L 1M3, Montreal, Canada aut Kosatsky Tom Public Health Department, Montreal Health and Social Services Agency, 1301 Sherbrooke St. East, H2L 1M3, Montreal, Canada aut International Journal of Biometeorology Springer-Verlag 55/3(2011-05-01), 353-360 0020-7128 55:3<353 2011 55 484 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-010-0345-x text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-010-0345-x text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Allard Robert Public Health Department, Montreal Health and Social Services Agency, 1301 Sherbrooke St. East, H2L 1M3, Montreal, Canada aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Plante Céline Public Health Department, Montreal Health and Social Services Agency, 1301 Sherbrooke St. East, H2L 1M3, Montreal, Canada aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Garnier Céline Public Health Department, Montreal Health and Social Services Agency, 1301 Sherbrooke St. East, H2L 1M3, Montreal, Canada aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Kosatsky Tom Public Health Department, Montreal Health and Social Services Agency, 1301 Sherbrooke St. East, H2L 1M3, Montreal, Canada aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- International Journal of Biometeorology Springer-Verlag 55/3(2011-05-01), 353-360 0020-7128 55:3<353 2011 55 484 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer