caa a22 4500 445367482 CHVBK 20180317142935.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20110701xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00484-010-0365-6 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00484-010-0365-6 Early-season warning of soybean rust regional epidemics using El Niño Southern/Oscillation information [Elektronische Daten] [Emerson Del Ponte, Aline de Maia, Thiago dos Santos, Eduardo Martins, Walter Baethgen] Soybean rust (SBR) is a disease of significant impact to Brazilian soybean production. Twenty-four locations in a major growing region in southern Brazil, where long-term (30 years) weather information was available, were selected to estimate the risk of SBR epidemics and identify potential predictors derived from El Niño 3.4 region. A rainfall-based model was used to predict SBR severity in an "epidemic development window” (the months of February and March for the studied region) in the time series. Twenty-eight daily simulations for each year-location (n=720) were performed considering each day after 31 January as a hypothetical detection date (HDD) to estimate a severity index (SBRindex). The mean SBRindex in a single year was defined as the ‘growing season severity index' (GSSI) for that year. A probabilistic risk assessment related GSSI and sea surface temperatures (SST) at the El Niño 3.4. region (here categorized as warm, cold or neutral phase) in October-November-December (OND) of the same growing season. Overall, the median GSSI across location-years was 34.5%. The risk of GSSI exceeding 60% was generally low and ranged from 0 to 20 percentage points, with the higher values found in the northern regions of the state when compared to the central-western. During a warm OND-SST phase, the probability of GSSI exceeding its overall mean (locations pooled) increased significantly by around 25 percentage points compared to neutral and cold SST phases, especially over the central western region. This study demonstrates the potential to use El Niño/Southern Oscillation information to anticipate the risk of SBR epidemics up to 1month in advance at a regional scale. ISB, 2010 Probabilistic risk assessment nationallicence Agricultural risk nationallicence El Niño nationallicence Plant disease nationallicence Del Ponte Emerson Faculdade de Agronomia, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Av. Bento Gonçalves 7712, 91540000, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil aut Maia Aline de Embrapa Meio Ambiente, Rodovia SP 340-Km 127,5, Caixa Postal 69, 13820000, Jaguariuna, SP, Brazil aut dos Santos Thiago Faculdade de Agronomia, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Av. Bento Gonçalves 7712, 91540000, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil aut Martins Eduardo Faculdade de Agronomia, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Av. Bento Gonçalves 7712, 91540000, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil aut Baethgen Walter International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), 61 Route 9W, Monell Building, P.O. Box1000, 10964-1000, Palisades, NY, USA aut International Journal of Biometeorology Springer-Verlag 55/4(2011-07-01), 575-583 0020-7128 55:4<575 2011 55 484 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-010-0365-6 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-010-0365-6 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Del Ponte Emerson Faculdade de Agronomia, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Av. Bento Gonçalves 7712, 91540000, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Maia Aline de Embrapa Meio Ambiente, Rodovia SP 340-Km 127,5, Caixa Postal 69, 13820000, Jaguariuna, SP, Brazil aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- dos Santos Thiago Faculdade de Agronomia, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Av. Bento Gonçalves 7712, 91540000, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Martins Eduardo Faculdade de Agronomia, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Av. Bento Gonçalves 7712, 91540000, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Baethgen Walter International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), 61 Route 9W, Monell Building, P.O. Box1000, 10964-1000, Palisades, NY, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- International Journal of Biometeorology Springer-Verlag 55/4(2011-07-01), 575-583 0020-7128 55:4<575 2011 55 484 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer