caa a22 4500 445367555 CHVBK 20180317142935.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20110901xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00484-010-0387-0 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00484-010-0387-0 Predicting apricot phenology using meteorological data [Elektronische Daten] [Mirjana Ruml, Dragan Milatović, Todor Vulić, Ana Vuković] The main objective of this study was to develop feasible, easy to apply models for early prediction of full flowering (FF) and maturing (MA) in apricot (Prunus armeniaca L.). Phenological data for 20 apricot cultivars grown in the Belgrade region were modeled against averages of daily temperature records over ten seasons for FF and eight seasons for MA. A much stronger correlation was found between the phenological timing and temperature at the very beginning than at the end of phenophases. Also, the length of developmental periods were better correlated to daily maximum than to daily minimum and mean air temperatures. Using prediction models based on daily maximum temperatures averaged over 30-, 45- and 60-day periods, starting from 1 January for FF prediction and from the date of FF for MA prediction, the onset of examined phenophases in apricot cultivars could be predicted from a few weeks to up to 2months ahead with acceptable accuracy. The mean absolute differences between the observations and cross-validated predictions obtained by 30-, 45- and 60-day models were 8.6, 6.9 and 5.7days for FF and 6.1, 3.6 and 2.8days for MA, respectively. The validity of the results was confirmed using an independent data set for the year 2009. ISB, 2010 Phenological model nationallicence Apricot nationallicence Full flowering nationallicence Maturing nationallicence Ruml Mirjana Faculty of Agriculture, University of Belgrade, Nemanjina 6, 11080, Belgrade, Serbia aut Milatović Dragan Faculty of Agriculture, University of Belgrade, Nemanjina 6, 11080, Belgrade, Serbia aut Vulić Todor Faculty of Agriculture, University of Belgrade, Nemanjina 6, 11080, Belgrade, Serbia aut Vuković Ana Faculty of Agriculture, University of Belgrade, Nemanjina 6, 11080, Belgrade, Serbia aut International Journal of Biometeorology Springer-Verlag 55/5(2011-09-01), 723-732 0020-7128 55:5<723 2011 55 484 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-010-0387-0 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-010-0387-0 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Ruml Mirjana Faculty of Agriculture, University of Belgrade, Nemanjina 6, 11080, Belgrade, Serbia aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Milatović Dragan Faculty of Agriculture, University of Belgrade, Nemanjina 6, 11080, Belgrade, Serbia aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Vulić Todor Faculty of Agriculture, University of Belgrade, Nemanjina 6, 11080, Belgrade, Serbia aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Vuković Ana Faculty of Agriculture, University of Belgrade, Nemanjina 6, 11080, Belgrade, Serbia aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- International Journal of Biometeorology Springer-Verlag 55/5(2011-09-01), 723-732 0020-7128 55:5<723 2011 55 484 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer