caa a22 4500 445367636 CHVBK 20180317142935.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20110301xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00484-010-0318-0 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00484-010-0318-0 Statistical modelling of grapevine yield in the Port Wine region under present and future climate conditions [Elektronische Daten] [João Santos, Aureliano Malheiro, Melanie Karremann, Joaquim Pinto] The impact of projected climate change on wine production was analysed for the Demarcated Region of Douro, Portugal. A statistical grapevine yield model (GYM) was developed using climate parameters as predictors. Statistically significant correlations were identified between annual yield and monthly mean temperatures and monthly precipitation totals during the growing cycle. These atmospheric factors control grapevine yield in the region, with the GYM explaining 50.4% of the total variance in the yield time series in recent decades. Anomalously high March rainfall (during budburst, shoot and inflorescence development) favours yield, as well as anomalously high temperatures and low precipitation amounts in May and June (May: flowering and June: berry development). The GYM was applied to a regional climate model output, which was shown to realistically reproduce the GYM predictors. Finally, using ensemble simulations under the A1B emission scenario, projections for GYM-derived yield in the Douro Region, and for the whole of the twenty-first century, were analysed. A slight upward trend in yield is projected to occur until about 2050, followed by a steep and continuous increase until the end of the twenty-first century, when yield is projected to be about 800kg/ha above current values. While this estimate is based on meteorological parameters alone, changes due to elevated CO2 may further enhance this effect. In spite of the associated uncertainties, it can be stated that projected climate change may significantly benefit wine yield in the Douro Valley. ISB, 2010 Grapevine yield modelling nationallicence Climate change projections nationallicence Douro nationallicence Portugal nationallicence Santos João Centre for Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences (CITAB), University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, P.O. Box1013, 5001-801, Vila Real, Portugal aut Malheiro Aureliano Centre for Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences (CITAB), University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, P.O. Box1013, 5001-801, Vila Real, Portugal aut Karremann Melanie Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne, Kerpener Str. 13, 50923, Cologne, Germany aut Pinto Joaquim Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne, Kerpener Str. 13, 50923, Cologne, Germany aut International Journal of Biometeorology Springer-Verlag 55/2(2011-03-01), 119-131 0020-7128 55:2<119 2011 55 484 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-010-0318-0 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-010-0318-0 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Santos João Centre for Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences (CITAB), University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, P.O. Box1013, 5001-801, Vila Real, Portugal aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Malheiro Aureliano Centre for Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences (CITAB), University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, P.O. Box1013, 5001-801, Vila Real, Portugal aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Karremann Melanie Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne, Kerpener Str. 13, 50923, Cologne, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Pinto Joaquim Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne, Kerpener Str. 13, 50923, Cologne, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- International Journal of Biometeorology Springer-Verlag 55/2(2011-03-01), 119-131 0020-7128 55:2<119 2011 55 484 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer