caa a22 4500 445367695 CHVBK 20180317142936.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20110301xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00484-010-0320-6 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00484-010-0320-6 What effect will a few degrees of climate change have on human heat balance? Implications for human activity [Elektronische Daten] [Shane Maloney, Cecil Forbes] While many factors affecting human health that will alter with climate change are being discussed, there has been no discussion about how a warmer future will affect man's thermoregulation. Using historical climate data for an Australian city and projections for Australia's climate in 2070, we address the issue using heat balance modelling for humans engaged in various levels of activity from rest to manual labour. We first validate two heat balance models against empirical data and then use the models to predict the number of days at present and in 2070 that (1) sweating will be required to attain heat balance, (2) heat balance will not be possible and hyperthermia will develop, and (3) body temperature will increase by 2.5°C in less than 2h, which we term "dangerous days”. The modelling is applied to people in an unacclimatised and an acclimatised state. The modelling shows that, for unacclimatised people, outdoor activity will not be possible on 33-45days per year, compared to 4-6days per year at present. For acclimatised people the situation is less dire but leisure activity like golf will be not be possible on 5-14days per year compared to 1day in 5years at present, and manual labour will be dangerous to perform on 15-26days per year compared to 1day per year at present. It is obvious that climate change will have important consequences for leisure, economic activity, and health in Australia. ISB, 2010 Acclimatisation nationallicence Economic activity nationallicence Leisure nationallicence Thermoregulation nationallicence Sweating nationallicence Maloney Shane School of Biomedical, Biomolecular, and Chemical Science, The University of Western Australia, Physiology M311, 35 Stirling Highway, 6009, Crawley, WA, Australia aut Forbes Cecil 2a Geordie Court, 6166, Coogee, Western Australia, Australia aut International Journal of Biometeorology Springer-Verlag 55/2(2011-03-01), 147-160 0020-7128 55:2<147 2011 55 484 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-010-0320-6 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-010-0320-6 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Maloney Shane School of Biomedical, Biomolecular, and Chemical Science, The University of Western Australia, Physiology M311, 35 Stirling Highway, 6009, Crawley, WA, Australia aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Forbes Cecil 2a Geordie Court, 6166, Coogee, Western Australia, Australia aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- International Journal of Biometeorology Springer-Verlag 55/2(2011-03-01), 147-160 0020-7128 55:2<147 2011 55 484 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer