caa a22 4500 445378107 CHVBK 20180317143009.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20110901xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s10393-011-0719-5 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s10393-011-0719-5 Modeling Potential Distribution of Oligoryzomys longicaudatus , the Andes Virus (Genus: Hantavirus ) Reservoir, in Argentina [Elektronische Daten] [Verónica Andreo, Gregory Glass, Timothy Shields, Cecilia Provensal, Jaime Polop] We constructed a model to predict the potential distribution of Oligoryzomys longicaudatus, the reservoir of Andes virus (Genus: Hantavirus), in Argentina. We developed an extensive database of occurrence records from published studies and our own surveys and compared two methods to model the probability of O. longicaudatus presence; logistic regression and MaxEnt algorithm. The environmental variables used were tree, grass and bare soil cover from MODIS imagery and, altitude and 19 bioclimatic variables from WorldClim database. The models performances were evaluated and compared both by threshold dependent and independent measures. The best models included tree and grass cover, mean diurnal temperature range, and precipitation of the warmest and coldest seasons. The potential distribution maps for O. longicaudatus predicted the highest occurrence probabilities along the Andes range, from 32°S and narrowing southwards. They also predicted high probabilities for the south-central area of Argentina, reaching the Atlantic coast. The Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome cases coincided with mean occurrence probabilities of 95 and 77% for logistic and MaxEnt models, respectively. HPS transmission zones in Argentine Patagonia matched the areas with the highest probability of presence. Therefore, colilargos presence probability may provide an approximate risk of transmission and act as an early tool to guide control and prevention plans. International Association for Ecology and Health, 2011 Argentina nationallicence hantavirus reservoir nationallicence logistic regression nationallicence MaxEnt algorithm nationallicence Oligoryzomys longicaudatus nationallicence potential distribution nationallicence Andreo Verónica Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Buenos Aires, Argentina aut Glass Gregory The W. Harry Feinstone Department of Molecular Microbiology and Immunology, The Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 615 North Wolfe St., 21205, Baltimore, MD, USA aut Shields Timothy The W. Harry Feinstone Department of Molecular Microbiology and Immunology, The Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 615 North Wolfe St., 21205, Baltimore, MD, USA aut Provensal Cecilia Departamento de Ciencias Naturales, Universidad Nacional de Río Cuarto, Ruta 36 - Km 601. Agencia Postal No. 3 Río Cuarto, CP 5800, Córdoba, Argentina aut Polop Jaime Departamento de Ciencias Naturales, Universidad Nacional de Río Cuarto, Ruta 36 - Km 601. Agencia Postal No. 3 Río Cuarto, CP 5800, Córdoba, Argentina aut EcoHealth Springer-Verlag 8/3(2011-09-01), 332-348 1612-9202 8:3<332 2011 8 10393 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10393-011-0719-5 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10393-011-0719-5 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Andreo Verónica Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Buenos Aires, Argentina aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Glass Gregory The W. Harry Feinstone Department of Molecular Microbiology and Immunology, The Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 615 North Wolfe St., 21205, Baltimore, MD, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Shields Timothy The W. Harry Feinstone Department of Molecular Microbiology and Immunology, The Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 615 North Wolfe St., 21205, Baltimore, MD, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Provensal Cecilia Departamento de Ciencias Naturales, Universidad Nacional de Río Cuarto, Ruta 36 - Km 601. Agencia Postal No. 3 Río Cuarto, CP 5800, Córdoba, Argentina aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Polop Jaime Departamento de Ciencias Naturales, Universidad Nacional de Río Cuarto, Ruta 36 - Km 601. Agencia Postal No. 3 Río Cuarto, CP 5800, Córdoba, Argentina aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- EcoHealth Springer-Verlag 8/3(2011-09-01), 332-348 1612-9202 8:3<332 2011 8 10393 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer