caa a22 4500 445383518 CHVBK 20180317143024.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20110901xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s10021-011-9456-4 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s10021-011-9456-4 Lessons Learned While Integrating Habitat, Dispersal, Disturbance, and Life-History Traits into Species Habitat Models Under Climate Change [Elektronische Daten] [Louis Iverson, Anantha Prasad, Stephen Matthews, Matthew Peters] We present an approach to modeling potential climate-driven changes in habitat for tree and bird species in the eastern United States. First, we took an empirical-statistical modeling approach, using randomForest, with species abundance data from national inventories combined with soil, climate, and landscape variables, to build abundance-based habitat models for 134 tree and 147 bird species. We produced lists of species for which suitable habitat tends to increase, decrease, or stay the same for any region. Independent assessments of trends of large trees versus seedlings across the eastern U.S. show that 37 of 40 species in common under both studies are currently trending as modeled. We developed a framework, ModFacs, in which we used the literature to assign default modification factor scores for species characteristics that cannot be readily assessed in such models, including 12 disturbance factors (for example, drought, fire, insect pests), nine biological factors (for example, dispersal, shade tolerance), and assessment scores of novel climates, long-distance extrapolations, and output variability by climate model and emission scenario. We also used a spatially explicit cellular model, SHIFT, to calculate colonization potentials for some species, based on their abundance, historic dispersal distances, and the fragmented nature of the landscape. By combining results from the three efforts, we can create projections of potential climate change impacts over the next 100years or so. Here we emphasize some of the lessons we have learned over 16years in hopes that they may help guide future experiments, modeling efforts, and management. Springer Science+Business Media, LLC (outside the USA), 2011 climate change nationallicence eastern United States nationallicence randomForest nationallicence statistical modeling nationallicence migration nationallicence trees nationallicence birds nationallicence DISTRIB nationallicence SHIFT nationallicence ModFacs nationallicence Iverson Louis Northern Research Station, US Forest Service, 359 Main Road, 43015, Delaware, Ohio, USA aut Prasad Anantha Northern Research Station, US Forest Service, 359 Main Road, 43015, Delaware, Ohio, USA aut Matthews Stephen Northern Research Station, US Forest Service, 359 Main Road, 43015, Delaware, Ohio, USA aut Peters Matthew Northern Research Station, US Forest Service, 359 Main Road, 43015, Delaware, Ohio, USA aut Ecosystems Springer-Verlag 14/6(2011-09-01), 1005-1020 1432-9840 14:6<1005 2011 14 10021 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-011-9456-4 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-011-9456-4 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Iverson Louis Northern Research Station, US Forest Service, 359 Main Road, 43015, Delaware, Ohio, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Prasad Anantha Northern Research Station, US Forest Service, 359 Main Road, 43015, Delaware, Ohio, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Matthews Stephen Northern Research Station, US Forest Service, 359 Main Road, 43015, Delaware, Ohio, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Peters Matthew Northern Research Station, US Forest Service, 359 Main Road, 43015, Delaware, Ohio, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Ecosystems Springer-Verlag 14/6(2011-09-01), 1005-1020 1432-9840 14:6<1005 2011 14 10021 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer