caa a22 4500 445383704 CHVBK 20180317143025.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20111101xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s10021-011-9474-2 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s10021-011-9474-2 Contributions of Ignitions, Fuels, and Weather to the Spatial Patterns of Burn Probability of a Boreal Landscape [Elektronische Daten] [Marc-André Parisien, Sean Parks, Carol Miller, Meg Krawchuk, Mark Heathcott, Max Moritz] The spatial pattern of fire observed across boreal landscapes is the outcome of complex interactions among components of the fire environment. We investigated how the naturally occurring patterns of ignitions, fuels, and weather generate spatial pattern of burn probability (BP) in a large and highly fire-prone boreal landscape of western Canada, Wood Buffalo National Park. This was achieved by producing a high-resolution map of BP using a fire simulation model that models the ignition and spread of individual fires for the current state of the study landscape (that is, the ‘control'). Then, to extract the effect of the variability in ignitions, fuels, and weather on spatial BP patterns, we subtracted the control BP map to those produced by "homogenizing” a single environmental factor of interest (that is, the ‘experimental treatments'). This yielded maps of spatial residuals that represent the spatial BP patterns for which the heterogeneity of each factor of interest is responsible. Residuals were analyzed within a structural equation modeling framework. The results showed unequal contributions of fuels (67.4%), weather (29.2%), and ignitions (3.4%) to spatial BP patterning. The large contribution of fuels reflects how substantial heterogeneity of land cover on this landscape strongly affects BP. Although weather has a chiefly temporal control on fire regimes, the variability in fire-conducive weather conditions exerted a surprisingly large influence on spatial BP patterns. The almost negligible effect of spatial ignition patterns was surprising but explainable in the context of this area's fire regime. Similar contributions of fuels, weather, and ignitions could be expected in other parts of the boreal forest that lack a strong anthropogenic imprint, but are likely to be altered in human-dominated fire regimes. Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, 2011 Fire nationallicence Boreal forest nationallicence Ignitions nationallicence Fuels nationallicence Weather nationallicence Burn probability nationallicence Simulation modeling nationallicence Structural equation modeling nationallicence Parisien Marc-André Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California, Berkeley, 137 Mulford Hall 3114, 94720, Berkeley, California, USA aut Parks Sean Rocky Mountain Research Station, Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, USDA Forest Service, 790 E Beckwith Avenue, 59801, Missoula, Montana, USA aut Miller Carol Rocky Mountain Research Station, Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, USDA Forest Service, 790 E Beckwith Avenue, 59801, Missoula, Montana, USA aut Krawchuk Meg Department of Geography, RCB 7123, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, V5A 1S6, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada aut Heathcott Mark Western Fire Centre, Parks Canada, 635 8th Avenue SW, T2P 3M3, Calgary, Alberta, Canada aut Moritz Max Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California, Berkeley, 137 Mulford Hall 3114, 94720, Berkeley, California, USA aut Ecosystems Springer-Verlag 14/7(2011-11-01), 1141-1155 1432-9840 14:7<1141 2011 14 10021 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-011-9474-2 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-011-9474-2 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Parisien Marc-André Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California, Berkeley, 137 Mulford Hall 3114, 94720, Berkeley, California, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Parks Sean Rocky Mountain Research Station, Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, USDA Forest Service, 790 E Beckwith Avenue, 59801, Missoula, Montana, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Miller Carol Rocky Mountain Research Station, Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, USDA Forest Service, 790 E Beckwith Avenue, 59801, Missoula, Montana, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Krawchuk Meg Department of Geography, RCB 7123, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, V5A 1S6, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Heathcott Mark Western Fire Centre, Parks Canada, 635 8th Avenue SW, T2P 3M3, Calgary, Alberta, Canada aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Moritz Max Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California, Berkeley, 137 Mulford Hall 3114, 94720, Berkeley, California, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Ecosystems Springer-Verlag 14/7(2011-11-01), 1141-1155 1432-9840 14:7<1141 2011 14 10021 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer