caa a22 4500 445383887 CHVBK 20180317143026.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20110601xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s10021-011-9427-9 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s10021-011-9427-9 Climate, Livestock, and Vegetation: What Drives Fire Increase in the Arid Ecosystems of Southern Russia? [Elektronische Daten] [Maxim Dubinin, Anna Luschekina, Volker Radeloff] Fire is an important natural disturbance process in arid grasslands but current fire regimes are largely the result of both human and natural processes and their interactions. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 spurred substantial socioeconomic changes and was ultimately followed by a rapid increase in burned area in southern Russia. What is unclear is whether this increase in burned area was caused by decreasing livestock numbers, vegetation changes, climate change, or interactions of these factors. Our research goal was to identify the driving forces behind the increase in burned area in the arid grasslands of southern Russia. Our study area encompassed 19,000km2 in the Republic of Kalmykia in southern Russia. We analyzed annual burned area from 1986 to 2006 as a function of livestock population, NDVI, precipitation, temperature, and broad-scale oscillation indices using best subset regressions and structural equation modeling. Our results supported the hypothesis that vegetation recovered within 5-6years after the livestock declined in the beginning of the 1990s, to a point at which large fires could be sustained. Climate was an important explanatory factor for burning, but mainly after 1996 when lower livestock numbers allowed fuels to accumulate. Ultimately, our results highlight the complexity of coupled human-natural systems, and provide an example of how abrupt socioeconomic change may affect fire regimes. Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, 2011 burning nationallicence arid ecosystems nationallicence livestock nationallicence climate nationallicence broad-scale climate nationallicence Southern Russia nationallicence socio-economic change nationallicence Dubinin Maxim Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1630 Linden Drive, 53706, Madison, Wisconsin, USA aut Luschekina Anna Institute of Ecology and Evolution, Russian Academy of Sciences, 33 Leninskiy prospect, 119071, Moscow, Russia aut Radeloff Volker Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1630 Linden Drive, 53706, Madison, Wisconsin, USA aut Ecosystems Springer-Verlag 14/4(2011-06-01), 547-562 1432-9840 14:4<547 2011 14 10021 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-011-9427-9 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-011-9427-9 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Dubinin Maxim Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1630 Linden Drive, 53706, Madison, Wisconsin, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Luschekina Anna Institute of Ecology and Evolution, Russian Academy of Sciences, 33 Leninskiy prospect, 119071, Moscow, Russia aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Radeloff Volker Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1630 Linden Drive, 53706, Madison, Wisconsin, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Ecosystems Springer-Verlag 14/4(2011-06-01), 547-562 1432-9840 14:4<547 2011 14 10021 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer