caa a22 4500 445794720 CHVBK 20180317145121.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20111201xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s10620-011-1849-x doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s10620-011-1849-x Prediction of Severe Acute Pancreatitis Using Classification and Regression Tree Analysis [Elektronische Daten] [Wandong Hong, Lemei Dong, Qingke Huang, Wenzhi Wu, Jiansheng Wu, Yumin Wang] Background: The available prognostic scoring systems for acute pancreatitis have limitations that restrict their clinical value. Aims: To develop a decision model based on classification and regression tree (CART) analysis for the prediction of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). Methods: A total of 420 patients with acute pancreatitis were enrolled. Study participants were randomly assigned to the training sample and test sample in a 2:1 ratio. First, univariate analysis and logistic regression analysis were used to identify predictors associated with SAP in the training sample. Then, CART analysis was carried out to develop a simple tree model for the prediction of SAP. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was constructed in order to assess the performance of the model. The prediction model was then applied to the test sample. Results: Four variables (systemic inflammatory response syndrome [SIRS], pleural effusion, serum calcium, and blood urea nitrogen [BUN]) were identified as important predictors of SAP by logistic regression analysis. A tree model (which consisted of pleural effusion, serum calcium, and BUN) that was developed by CART analysis was able to early identify among cohorts at high (79.03%) and low (7.80%) risk of developing SAP. The area under the ROC curve of the tree model was higher than that of the APACHE II score (0.84 vs. 0.68; P<0.001). The predicted accuracy of the tree model was validated in the test sample with an area under the ROC curve of 0.86. Conclusions: A decision tree model that consists of pleural effusion, serum calcium, and BUN may be useful for the prediction of SAP. Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, 2011 Decision tree nationallicence Predictors nationallicence Acute pancreatitis nationallicence Severity nationallicence Sensitivity and specificity nationallicence Hong Wandong Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical College, No. 2, Fu Xue Road, 325000, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, People's Republic of China aut Dong Lemei Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical College, No. 2, Fu Xue Road, 325000, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, People's Republic of China aut Huang Qingke Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical College, No. 2, Fu Xue Road, 325000, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, People's Republic of China aut Wu Wenzhi Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical College, No. 2, Fu Xue Road, 325000, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, People's Republic of China aut Wu Jiansheng Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical College, No. 2, Fu Xue Road, 325000, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, People's Republic of China aut Wang Yumin Department of Laboratory Diagnosis Center, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical College, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, People's Republic of China aut Digestive Diseases and Sciences Springer US; http://www.springer-ny.com 56/12(2011-12-01), 3664-3671 0163-2116 56:12<3664 2011 56 10620 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10620-011-1849-x text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10620-011-1849-x text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Hong Wandong Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical College, No. 2, Fu Xue Road, 325000, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, People's Republic of China aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Dong Lemei Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical College, No. 2, Fu Xue Road, 325000, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, People's Republic of China aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Huang Qingke Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical College, No. 2, Fu Xue Road, 325000, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, People's Republic of China aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Wu Wenzhi Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical College, No. 2, Fu Xue Road, 325000, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, People's Republic of China aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Wu Jiansheng Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical College, No. 2, Fu Xue Road, 325000, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, People's Republic of China aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Wang Yumin Department of Laboratory Diagnosis Center, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical College, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, People's Republic of China aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Digestive Diseases and Sciences Springer US; http://www.springer-ny.com 56/12(2011-12-01), 3664-3671 0163-2116 56:12<3664 2011 56 10620 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer