caa a22 4500 445799692 CHVBK 20180317145137.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20110101xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00704-010-0275-x doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00704-010-0275-x Super-ensemble of three RCMs for climate projection over East Asia and Taiwan [Elektronische Daten] [Chung-Ming Liu, Ming-Chin Wu, Sahana Paul, Ying-Chen Chen, Shu-Hua Lin, Wei-Shiang Lin, Yen-Chih Lee, Huang-Hsung Hsu, Ren-Yow Tseng, Cheng-Ta Chen] Runs of three regional climate models (RCMs) dynamically downscaling the outputs of atmosphere-ocean coupling general circulation models (AOGCMs) are studied. These RCMs are NCAR-MM5, NCEP-RSM (Regional Spectral Model), and Purdue-PRM (Purdue Regional Model). A useful approach is developed to compare the variability, error, and spatial distribution of model-simulated results with respect to the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) datasets over East Asia and seven sub-regions during the 1990s. The results show that NCEP-RSM outperforms the other two in meeting criteria selected on evaluating the model performance. Furthermore, three super-ensemble approaches are tested on merging RCMs' outputs. The inverse of the square error summation (ISES) method is selected as a suitable method with a generally good performance during the verification period. The projected future climate changes by ISES indicate larger temperature increases over high-latitude continent and smaller over low-latitude maritime areas. Rainfall will increase in summer over the central simulation domain, i.e. the eastern China, but decrease in winter, which are clearly linked to the variation in the synoptic airflows. Also, a more frequent occurrence of extreme rainfall events than what happened in the 1990s is projected. The projection over Taiwan suggests strong warming in summer, followed by autumn, winter, and spring. The interaction between the synoptic flow and the local terrain affects significantly the changes in precipitation. In general, larger change of the variability of rainfall will be over areas with lesser rainfall in the future, while lesser change will be over areas with more projected rainfall. Springer-Verlag, 2010 Liu Chung-Ming Global Change Research Center, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan, China aut Wu Ming-Chin Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan, China aut Paul Sahana Global Change Research Center, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan, China aut Chen Ying-Chen Global Change Research Center, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan, China aut Lin Shu-Hua Global Change Research Center, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan, China aut Lin Wei-Shiang Global Change Research Center, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan, China aut Lee Yen-Chih Global Change Research Center, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan, China aut Hsu Huang-Hsung Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan, China aut Tseng Ren-Yow Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Central University, Chungli, Taiwan, China aut Chen Cheng-Ta Department of Earth Sciences, National Normal University, Taipei, Taiwan, China aut Theoretical and Applied Climatology Springer Vienna 103/1-2(2011-01-01), 265-278 0177-798X 103:1-2<265 2011 103 704 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0275-x text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0275-x text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Liu Chung-Ming Global Change Research Center, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan, China aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Wu Ming-Chin Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan, China aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Paul Sahana Global Change Research Center, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan, China aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Chen Ying-Chen Global Change Research Center, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan, China aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Lin Shu-Hua Global Change Research Center, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan, China aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Lin Wei-Shiang Global Change Research Center, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan, China aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Lee Yen-Chih Global Change Research Center, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan, China aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Hsu Huang-Hsung Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan, China aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Tseng Ren-Yow Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Central University, Chungli, Taiwan, China aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Chen Cheng-Ta Department of Earth Sciences, National Normal University, Taipei, Taiwan, China aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Theoretical and Applied Climatology Springer Vienna 103/1-2(2011-01-01), 265-278 0177-798X 103:1-2<265 2011 103 704 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer