caa a22 4500 44579979X CHVBK 20180317145137.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20110601xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00704-010-0362-z doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00704-010-0362-z Climate change scenarios of precipitation extremes in Central Europe from ENSEMBLES regional climate models [Elektronische Daten] [Jan Kyselý, Ladislav Gaál, Romana Beranová, Eva Plavcová] The study examines future scenarios of precipitation extremes over Central Europe in an ensemble of 12 regional climate model (RCM) simulations with the 25-km resolution, carried out within the European project ENSEMBLES. We apply the region-of-influence method as a pooling scheme when estimating distributions of extremes, which consists in incorporating data from a ‘region' (set of gridboxes) when fitting an extreme value distribution in any single gridbox. The method reduces random variations in the estimates of parameters of the extreme value distribution that result from large spatial variability of heavy precipitation. Although spatial patterns differ among the models, most RCMs simulate increases in high quantiles of precipitation amounts when averaged over the area for the late-twenty-first century (2070-2099) climate in both winter and summer. The sign as well as the magnitude of the projected change vary only little for individual parts of the distribution of daily precipitation in winter. In summer, on the other hand, the projected changes increase with the quantile of the distribution in all RCMs, and they are negative (positive) for parts of the distribution below (above) the 98% quantile if averaged over the RCMs. The increases in precipitation extremes in summer are projected in spite of a pronounced drying in most RCMs. Although a rather general qualitative agreement of the models concerning the projected changes of precipitation extremes is found in both winter and summer, the uncertainties in climate change scenarios remain large and would likely further increase considerably if a more complete ensemble of RCM simulations driven by a larger suite of global models and with a range of possible scenarios of the radiative forcing is available. Springer-Verlag, 2010 Kyselý Jan Institute of Atmospheric Physics AS CR, Boční II 1401, 141 31 Prague, Czech Republic aut Gaál Ladislav Institute of Atmospheric Physics AS CR, Boční II 1401, 141 31 Prague, Czech Republic aut Beranová Romana Institute of Atmospheric Physics AS CR, Boční II 1401, 141 31 Prague, Czech Republic aut Plavcová Eva Institute of Atmospheric Physics AS CR, Boční II 1401, 141 31 Prague, Czech Republic aut Theoretical and Applied Climatology Springer Vienna 104/3-4(2011-06-01), 529-542 0177-798X 104:3-4<529 2011 104 704 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0362-z text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0362-z text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Kyselý Jan Institute of Atmospheric Physics AS CR, Boční II 1401, 141 31 Prague, Czech Republic aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Gaál Ladislav Institute of Atmospheric Physics AS CR, Boční II 1401, 141 31 Prague, Czech Republic aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Beranová Romana Institute of Atmospheric Physics AS CR, Boční II 1401, 141 31 Prague, Czech Republic aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Plavcová Eva Institute of Atmospheric Physics AS CR, Boční II 1401, 141 31 Prague, Czech Republic aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Theoretical and Applied Climatology Springer Vienna 104/3-4(2011-06-01), 529-542 0177-798X 104:3-4<529 2011 104 704 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer