caa a22 4500 445800046 CHVBK 20180317145138.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20110501xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00704-011-0431-y doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00704-011-0431-y Autoregressive modelling of daily ragweed pollen concentrations for Szeged in Hungary [Elektronische Daten] [István Matyasovszky, László Makra] Studying airborne pollen concentrations is an essential part of aerobiology owing to its important applications in allergology. A time-varying first order autoregressive (AR(1)) model able to describe the annual cycle of both the expectation and variance as well as the highly skewed probability distribution of daily ragweed pollen concentrations conditioned on previous-day pollen concentration values is developed. Confidence bands for forecasts obtained with these conditional lognormal distributions are analysed. The probability of exceeding specific pollen concentration thresholds is also addressed with the model based on a refinement of the AutoRegressive To Anything process. In order to have more accurate forecasts for the next-day pollen concentration level, eight meteorological variables influencing pollen concentrations are considered. Based on a procedure similar to the stepwise regression method, only one predictor has been retained, namely the daily mean temperature. Using root mean square error, the percentage variance of the ragweed pollen concentration level accounted for by this extended AR(1) model is 53.5%, while the mean absolute error produced by the model is 32.2 pollen grainsm−3. The probability of exceeding pollen concentration thresholds obtained from the conditional lognormal distributions under the extended AR(1) model fits well the observed exceedance events. Springer-Verlag, 2011 Matyasovszky István Department of Meteorology, Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/A, 1117, Budapest, Hungary aut Makra László Department of Climatology and Landscape Ecology, University of Szeged, PO Box 653, 6701, Szeged, Hungary aut Theoretical and Applied Climatology Springer Vienna 104/1-2(2011-05-01), 277-283 0177-798X 104:1-2<277 2011 104 704 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0431-y text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0431-y text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Matyasovszky István Department of Meteorology, Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/A, 1117, Budapest, Hungary aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Makra László Department of Climatology and Landscape Ecology, University of Szeged, PO Box 653, 6701, Szeged, Hungary aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Theoretical and Applied Climatology Springer Vienna 104/1-2(2011-05-01), 277-283 0177-798X 104:1-2<277 2011 104 704 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer