caa a22 4500 445800267 CHVBK 20180317145138.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20111201xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00704-011-0439-3 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00704-011-0439-3 Expected changes in future agro-climatological conditions in Northeast Thailand and their differences between general circulation models [Elektronische Daten] [Yoshimitsu Masaki, Yasushi Ishigooka, Tsuneo Kuwagata, Shinkichi Goto, Shinji Sawano, Toshihiro Hasegawa] We have studied future changes in the atmospheric and hydrological environments in Northeast Thailand from the viewpoint of risk assessment of future cultural environments in crop fields. To obtain robust and reliable estimation for future climate, ten general circulation models under three warming scenarios, B1, A1B, and A2, were used in this study. The obtained change trends show that daily maximum air temperature and precipitation will increase by 2.6°C and 4.0%, respectively, whereas soil moisture will decrease by c.a. 1% point in volumetric water content at the end of this century under the A1B scenario. Seasonal contrasts in precipitation will intensify: precipitation increases in the rainy season and precipitation decreases in the dry season. Soil moisture will slightly decrease almost throughout the year. Despite a homogeneous increase in the air temperature over Northeast Thailand, a future decrease in soil water content will show a geographically inhomogeneous distribution: Soil will experience a relative larger decrease in wetness at a shallow depth on the Khorat plateau than in the surrounding mountainous area, reflecting vegetation cover and soil texture. The predicted increase in air temperature is relatively consistent between general circulation models. In contrast, relatively large intermodel differences in precipitation, especially in long-term trends, produce unwanted bias errors in the estimation of other hydrological elements, such as soil moisture and evaporation, and cause uncertainties in projection of the agro-climatological environment. Offline hydrological simulation with a wide precipitation range is one strategy to compensate for such uncertainties and to obtain reliable risk assessment of future cultural conditions in rainfed paddy fields in Northeast Thailand. Springer-Verlag, 2011 Future climatic change nationallicence Risk assessment nationallicence Northeast Thailand nationallicence Agricultural environment nationallicence Masaki Yoshimitsu National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, 3-1-3, Kannondai, 305-8604, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan aut Ishigooka Yasushi National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, 3-1-3, Kannondai, 305-8604, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan aut Kuwagata Tsuneo National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, 3-1-3, Kannondai, 305-8604, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan aut Goto Shinkichi National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, 3-1-3, Kannondai, 305-8604, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan aut Sawano Shinji National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, 3-1-3, Kannondai, 305-8604, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan aut Hasegawa Toshihiro National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, 3-1-3, Kannondai, 305-8604, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan aut Theoretical and Applied Climatology Springer Vienna 106/3-4(2011-12-01), 383-401 0177-798X 106:3-4<383 2011 106 704 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0439-3 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0439-3 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Masaki Yoshimitsu National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, 3-1-3, Kannondai, 305-8604, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Ishigooka Yasushi National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, 3-1-3, Kannondai, 305-8604, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Kuwagata Tsuneo National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, 3-1-3, Kannondai, 305-8604, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Goto Shinkichi National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, 3-1-3, Kannondai, 305-8604, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Sawano Shinji National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, 3-1-3, Kannondai, 305-8604, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Hasegawa Toshihiro National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, 3-1-3, Kannondai, 305-8604, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Theoretical and Applied Climatology Springer Vienna 106/3-4(2011-12-01), 383-401 0177-798X 106:3-4<383 2011 106 704 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer