caa a22 4500 445800577 CHVBK 20180317145139.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20111101xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00704-011-0422-z doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00704-011-0422-z Caribbean hurricanes: interannual variability and prediction [Elektronische Daten] [Mark Jury, Ernesto Rodríguez] Climatic conditions that affect the interannual variability of Caribbean hurricanes are studied. Composite meteorological and oceanographic reanalysis fields are constructed for active and inactive seasons since 1979, and differences are calculated for spring and summer periods to provide guidance in statistical analysis. Predictors are extracted for areas exhibiting high contrast between active and inactive seasons, and intercomparisons are made. Zonal winds north of Venezuela exhibit westerly anomalies prior to active years, so coastal upwelling and the north Brazil current are diminished. Rainfall increases in the Orinoco River basin, creating a fresh warm plume north of Trinidad. The predictor time series are regressed onto an index of Caribbean hurricanes, and multivariate algorithms are formulated. It is found that atmospheric kinematic and convective predictors explain only ∼20% of hurricane variance at 3-5-month lead time. Subsurface ocean predictors offer higher levels of explained hurricane variance (42%) at 3-5-month lead time, using 1-200-m-depth-averaged temperatures in the east Pacific and southern Caribbean. We place the statistical results in a conceptual framework to better understand climatic processes anticipating Caribbean hurricanes. Springer-Verlag, 2011 Jury Mark Physics Department, University of Puerto Rico, Mayagüez, PR, USA aut Rodríguez Ernesto Physics Department, University of Puerto Rico, Mayagüez, PR, USA aut Theoretical and Applied Climatology Springer Vienna 106/1-2(2011-11-01), 105-115 0177-798X 106:1-2<105 2011 106 704 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0422-z text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0422-z text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Jury Mark Physics Department, University of Puerto Rico, Mayagüez, PR, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Rodríguez Ernesto Physics Department, University of Puerto Rico, Mayagüez, PR, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Theoretical and Applied Climatology Springer Vienna 106/1-2(2011-11-01), 105-115 0177-798X 106:1-2<105 2011 106 704 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer