caa a22 4500 445800704 CHVBK 20180317145140.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20111001xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00704-010-0396-2 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00704-010-0396-2 Performance of GCMs for seasonal prediction over India—a case study for 2009 monsoon [Elektronische Daten] [Nachiketa Acharya, Sarat Kar, U. Mohanty, Makarand Kulkarni, S. Dash] The 2009 drought in India was one of the major droughts that the country faced in the last 100years. This study describes the anomalous features of 2009 summer monsoon and examines real-time seasonal predictions made using six general circulation models (GCMs). El Niño conditions evolved in the Pacific Ocean, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Indian Ocean were warmer than normal during monsoon 2009. The observed circulation patterns indicate a weaker monsoon in that year over India with weaker than normal convection over the Bay of Bengal and Indian landmass. Skill of the GCMs during hindcast period shows that neither these models simulate the observed interannual variability nor their multi-model ensemble (MME) significantly improves the skill of monsoon rainfall predictions. Except for one model used in this study, the real-time predictions with longer lead (2- and 1-month lead) made for the 2009 monsoon season did not provide any indication of a highly anomalous monsoon. However, with less lead time (zero lead), most of the models as well as the MME had provided predictions of below normal rainfall for that monsoon season. This study indicates that the models could not predict the 2009 drought over India due to the use of less warm SST anomalies over the Pacific in the longer lead runs. Hence, it is proposed that the uncertainties in SST predictions (the lower boundary condition) have to be represented in the model predictions of summer monsoon rainfall over India. Springer-Verlag, 2011 Acharya Nachiketa Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, IIT, New Delhi, India aut Kar Sarat National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, A-50, Sector-62, Noida, India aut Mohanty U. Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, IIT, New Delhi, India aut Kulkarni Makarand Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, IIT, New Delhi, India aut Dash S. Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, IIT, New Delhi, India aut Theoretical and Applied Climatology Springer Vienna 105/3-4(2011-10-01), 505-520 0177-798X 105:3-4<505 2011 105 704 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0396-2 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0396-2 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Acharya Nachiketa Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, IIT, New Delhi, India aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Kar Sarat National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, A-50, Sector-62, Noida, India aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Mohanty U. Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, IIT, New Delhi, India aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Kulkarni Makarand Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, IIT, New Delhi, India aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Dash S. Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, IIT, New Delhi, India aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Theoretical and Applied Climatology Springer Vienna 105/3-4(2011-10-01), 505-520 0177-798X 105:3-4<505 2011 105 704 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer