caa a22 4500 445800739 CHVBK 20180317145140.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20111001xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00704-010-0386-4 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00704-010-0386-4 Risk assessment of hurricane winds for Eglin air force base in northwestern Florida, USA [Elektronische Daten] [Kelsey Scheitlin, James Elsner, Shawn Lewers, Jill Malmstadt, Thomas Jagger] Hurricane winds present a significant hazard for coastal infrastructure. An estimate of the local risk of extreme wind speeds is made using a new method that combines historical hurricane records with a deterministic wind field model. The method is applied to Santa Rosa Island located in the northwestern panhandle region of Florida, USA. Firstly, a hurricane track is created for a landfall location on the island that represents the worst-case scenario for Eglin Air Force Base (EAFB). The track is based on averaging the paths of historical hurricanes in the vicinity of the landfall location. Secondly, an extreme-value statistical model is used to estimate 100-year wind speeds at locations along the average track based again on historical hurricanes in the vicinity of the track locations. Thirdly, the 100-year wind speeds together with information about hurricane size and forward speed are used as input to the HAZUS hurricane wind field model to produce a wind swath across EAFB. Results show a 100-year hurricane wind gust on Santa Rosa Island of 58 (±5) ms−1 (90% CI). A 100-year wind gust at the same location based on a 105-year simulation of hurricanes is lower at 55ms−1, but within the 90% confidence limits. Based on structural damage functions and building stock data for the region, the 100-year hurricane wind swath results in $574 million total loss to residential and commercial buildings, not including military infrastructure, with 25% of all buildings receiving at least some damage. This methodology may be applied to other coastal areas and adapted to predict extreme winds and their impacts under climate variability and change. Springer-Verlag, 2011 Scheitlin Kelsey Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, USA aut Elsner James Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, USA aut Lewers Shawn Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, USA aut Malmstadt Jill Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, USA aut Jagger Thomas Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, USA aut Theoretical and Applied Climatology Springer Vienna 105/3-4(2011-10-01), 287-296 0177-798X 105:3-4<287 2011 105 704 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0386-4 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0386-4 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Scheitlin Kelsey Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Elsner James Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Lewers Shawn Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Malmstadt Jill Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Jagger Thomas Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Theoretical and Applied Climatology Springer Vienna 105/3-4(2011-10-01), 287-296 0177-798X 105:3-4<287 2011 105 704 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer