caa a22 4500 445800755 CHVBK 20180317145140.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20111001xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00704-010-0365-9 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00704-010-0365-9 Stable estimations for extreme wind speeds. An application to Belgium [Elektronische Daten] [H. Van de Vyver, A. Delcloo] Generalized Pareto distributions (GPD) are frequently applied for the statistical analysis of extreme wind speeds. A central topic in extreme-value theory is the adaptive estimation of the extreme-value index γ. Several authors have demonstrated a high sensitivity of γ against the threshold when analyzing extreme wind speeds. This undesirable effect introduces the difficulty to provide reliable quantile estimates. This paper aims to bring this problem to meteorologists and proposes a stable estimator (the Zipf estimator) for γ. This could allow a more objective prior identification of the sign and range of γ. The method is based on regression in the so-called generalized quantile plots. A comparative study with a classical estimator (the probability-weighted method) is made and it is shown that the Zipf estimator significantly decreases the variance in the calibration of the GPD to extreme wind gusts. Finally, the new methodology is applied to get improved prediction of extreme wind gusts in Belgium. Springer-Verlag, 2011 Van de Vyver H. Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Ringlaan 3, 1180, Brussels, Belgium aut Delcloo A. Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Ringlaan 3, 1180, Brussels, Belgium aut Theoretical and Applied Climatology Springer Vienna 105/3-4(2011-10-01), 417-429 0177-798X 105:3-4<417 2011 105 704 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0365-9 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0365-9 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Van de Vyver H. Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Ringlaan 3, 1180, Brussels, Belgium aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Delcloo A. Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Ringlaan 3, 1180, Brussels, Belgium aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Theoretical and Applied Climatology Springer Vienna 105/3-4(2011-10-01), 417-429 0177-798X 105:3-4<417 2011 105 704 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer