caa a22 4500 44580078X CHVBK 20180317145140.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20111001xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00704-011-0406-z doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00704-011-0406-z PLS regression-based pan evaporation and minimum-maximum temperature projections for an arid lake basin in India [Elektronische Daten] [Manish Goyal, C. Ojha] Climate change information required for impact studies is of a much finer scale than that provided by Global circulation models (GCMs). This paper presents an application of partial least squares (PLS) regression for downscaling GCMs output. Statistical downscaling models were developed using PLS regression for simultaneous downscaling of mean monthly maximum and minimum temperatures (T max and T min) as well as pan evaporation to lake-basin scale in an arid region in India. The data used for evaluation were extracted from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset for the period 1948-2000 and the simulations from the third-generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) for emission scenarios A1B, A2, B1, and COMMIT for the period 2001-2100. A simple multiplicative shift was used for correcting predictand values. The results demonstrated that the downscaling method was able to capture the relationship between the premises and the response. The analysis of downscaling models reveals that (1) the correlation coefficient for downscaled versus observed mean maximum temperature, mean minimum temperature, and pan evaporation was 0.94, 0.96, and 0.89, respectively; (2) an increasing trend is observed for T max and T min for A1B, A2, and B1 scenarios, whereas no trend is discerned with the COMMIT scenario; and (3) there was no trend observed in pan evaporation. In COMMIT scenario, atmospheric CO2 concentrations are held at year 2000 levels. Furthermore, a comparison with neural network technique shows the efficiency of PLS regression method. Springer-Verlag, 2011 Goyal Manish Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee, India aut Ojha C. Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee, India aut Theoretical and Applied Climatology Springer Vienna 105/3-4(2011-10-01), 403-415 0177-798X 105:3-4<403 2011 105 704 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0406-z text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0406-z text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Goyal Manish Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee, India aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Ojha C. Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee, India aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Theoretical and Applied Climatology Springer Vienna 105/3-4(2011-10-01), 403-415 0177-798X 105:3-4<403 2011 105 704 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer